FXUS64 KFWD 250511 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1111 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.AVIATION...
ALL PRECIP IS WELL EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILING. THE ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE WNW WITH SPEEDS IN THE
20G33 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
RACE TO THE NE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND SO WILL OUR
WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BACK AS WELL OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS...BECOMING WEST BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST BY MID-AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD
WITH VFR PREVAILING.
85/NH
&&
.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING WITH REMAINING SNOW
COMING TO AN END. RADAR ONLY INDICATES SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...AND THIS WILL END
SHORTLY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WILL LET ALL
ADVISORIES EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 PM. REMNANT WATER FROM MELTING SNOW
OR SLUSH ON ROADS WILL QUICKLY RE-FREEZE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS.
WINDS HAVE COME DOWN...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO WILL LET THAT CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS.
91/DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS THROUGH 6 PM WHEN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER WARNING BOTH WILL EXPIRE.
WATER VAPOR AND REGIONAL 88D LOOPS PRETTY WELL SUM UP THE
SITUATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SAT LOOPS
SHOWS INTENSE MID/UPPER LOW NEARING GREENVILLE AS IT MOVES EAST-
NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 30 KNOTS. IT SHOULD REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AROUND 00Z (6PM). REGIONAL 88D RADAR SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SNOW NEAR A HOBART OKLAHOMA TO COLEMAN LINE AT 2PM AND WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AS WE RELEASE THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING...BACK EDGE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA FAIRLY RAPIDLY...BRINGING AN END
TO THE SNOW ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND MID EVENING...AND OVER
THE EAST CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE OF THE MECHANICS AND
DYNAMIC OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. FRONTOGENETIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO
VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT...THUS AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND THIS
EVENING WILL HAVE A "WHITE CHRISTMAS MORNING"...BUT SUNSHINE
SHOULD MELT MOST OF IT AWAY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AND BRISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WIND ADVISORY WILL LINGER UNTIL
9PM...AND MIGHT BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT IF THEY DO NOT SUBSIDE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND QUITE COLD. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
IS SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY AS AN MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDING (DFW) FOR TUESDAY MORNING IS BELOW FREEZING
WITH SATURATION EXTENDING UP TO 550MB. THUS...A WINTRY MIX IS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM
ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY...MELTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.
75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 22 44 25 47 26 / 0 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 26 48 26 51 30 / 0 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 21 40 21 44 26 / 10 5 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 20 42 23 43 23 / 0 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 20 42 23 44 24 / 10 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 23 45 25 47 29 / 0 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 24 45 25 48 29 / 0 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 25 47 27 50 28 / 0 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 25 50 26 51 28 / 0 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
85/91
