FXUS64 KAMA 240000 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.AVIATION...
WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW AND FOG WILL
REDUCE CONDITIONS TO LIFR. ONCE THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...SNOW WILL
BEGIN TAPERING OFF WHILE WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW PHASE IN. KAMA COULD
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO VLIFR OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT. 

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WHEN THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX.

NUNEZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
VERY BUSY TRYING TO RESOLVE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH A VERY FLUID FORECAST SITUATION. 12Z
MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CHANGE TO THE TRACK OF THE INCOMING UPPER LOW.
THE TRACK DEVELOPED FURTHER SOUTH...CAUSING AN ALMOST 180 DEGREE
CHANGE IN THE PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. HAVE NOW SETTLED ON
THE LOWEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT
THEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS NEAR 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. OPTED TO LET WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DROP AND BEGIN A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH
WIND CHILLS FALLING NEAR ZERO BY THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN AREA TO
INCLUDE THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY IN TIME
THROUGH 18Z...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE THE NORM WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY
SUNRISE MOST AREAS...BUT WILL LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE EXITING UPPER LOW.

WHATEVER SNOW DOES NOT BLOW AWAY SHOULD LEAVE SECTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE WITH A WHITE CHRISTMAS. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY IN
MID 30S MAY BE OVERDONE IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER...SO WE HAVE TO KEEP
A WATCH ON THAT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
BEYOND CHRISTMAS DAY.  THE PANHANDLES WILL STAY IN A COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LARGE CYCLONE THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF 
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

$$

08/16