FXUS63 KMPX 280452 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1050 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH WHICH TO BE CONCERNED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THINGS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE INTERESTING
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK... BUT MUCH OF THAT IS STILL
UP IN THE AIR... WITH OTHERWISE ONLY MINIMAL WEATHER ISSUES IN
STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES... BRACKETED BY UPPER TROUGHS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER
THE NORTHEAST US. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS... WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... AND WILL REMAIN MILD INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE COLD ADVECTION SETS IN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT... ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DURING AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST DPVA LAGS THE WARM ADVECTION... SO
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE... AND MODEL OMEGA
FIELDS ARE ALSO FAIRLY WEAK. THE GFS AND REGIONAL GEM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SATURATION AND MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
LITTLE BIT OF PCPN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SO...
IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA... BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW FLAKES
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE AND PERIOD OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY... BUT IT APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF
PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH... WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES BY TO OUR
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY IT WILL DRAG A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE... WHICH WILL WORK TO FINALLY BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN CLOSER AND PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD... TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THINGS STILL
LOOK A BIT UNCERTAIN. BUT... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY... THE BULK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL TO OUR
EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
BOTH ARE FARTHER EAST IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THINGS IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY... WITH DIFFERENCES IN THEIR HANDLING OF SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY CONTINUING TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
HOW THEY HANDLE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS PERHAPS TRENDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
GFS... ALTHOUGH IT STILL RETAINS MORE TROUGHING BACK INTO OUR AREA
IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT A LOW CONFIDENCE
BLENDED SOLUTION APPEARS THE BEST CHOICE. WITH THAT SAID... WILL
HAVE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH SOME LOW POPS
FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MN IS 
WASHING OUT THIS EVENING.  FLOW VERY WEAK NOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN 
AND WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPED.  HIGHER SFC 
DEWPTS RESIDE OVER THIS PORTION OVER THE FA.  WITH THE PATTERN 
PRETTY MUCH SET...WILL MENTION MVFR FOG DEVELOPING 06Z-09Z IN MN FA 
AND A BIT LATER INTO WC WI WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER AND FROST MAY 
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT.  CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 
OVERNIGHT ITNO THE DAY SATURDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH 
INTO THE AREA. 00Z MODEL RUN DEVELOPING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWEST FA AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND 
TROUGH MOVES EAST.  WILL MENTION SOME 4K FT STRATOCUMULUS AT KAXN 
AND KSTC IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOWERING AC/MID CLOUD DECK.  
WILL LIKLEY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AROUND THE 00Z SUN TIME FRAME 
THIS LOCATION...GRADUALLY SAGGING INTO THE KMSP AREA BY 08Z SUN.  
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME N-NWLY AND 
INCREASE A BIT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES 
OVER CENTRAL MN LATE BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

TRH/DWE