FXUS64 KOUN 141733
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
IN NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW... POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING KGAG... KWWR... KCSM... KHBR... KLAW... AND KSPS. IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FORMS
WILL SUBLIMATE IN A DRY LAYER A FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN OK AT 12Z WILL MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINING TERMINALS THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OK BECOMING SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH. EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
MEANWHILE... BRISK NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE EXHIBITING REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BUT BEGIN TO HAVE MORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE SHORT RUN... A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NW OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY IN MOST
AREA WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THEREAFTER EXCEPT FOR IN THE NORTH WHERE A
SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THIS AREA WILL
START THE DAY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL PUSH WINDS A LITTLE HIGHER
BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FOR THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE... WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADD SOME PATCHES OF FOG FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE SHALLOW BUT COLD AIRMASS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT TODAY WILL LIKELY AFFECT TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
BELIEVE MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN MODIFYING/MOVING OUT THIS
AIRMASS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND PREFER THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
SLOWING THE PACE OF THE WARMING TREND.
IN THE LONGER TERM... THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR
SOLUTION WITH THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN U.S. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE MUCH AMPLITUDE WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT SATURDAY THAN DOES THE
GFS WHILE ALSO PUSHING COLD AIR BACK INTO THE AREA MORE QUICKLY. FOR
NOW WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER FOR NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
IF ECMWF IS CORRECT... FURTHER COOLING WILL BE REQUIRED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 22 36 25 / 0 10 10 0
HOBART OK 44 23 41 26 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 52 28 45 26 / 0 10 10 0
GAGE OK 36 12 35 19 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 30 16 32 17 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 56 28 44 28 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
02/23/23
