FXUS64 KEWX 040533
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1133 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009
.AVIATION...
CIGS 3 THSD TO 7 THSD OVC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. SOME
OCCASIONAL BRIEF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME FROM
09Z TO 10Z...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM AROUND AND
AFTER 11Z TO 18Z. AFTER 18Z CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
5 THSD TO 10 THSD BKN VCNTY KDRT...AND CONTINUE AT 3 THSD TO 7
THSD OVC WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW VCNTY KSAT TO KAUS. AFTER 22Z
FRIDAY...THE WINTER PRECIPITATION MAKING WEATHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME 7
THSD SCT VCNTY KDRT TO CIGS 7 THSD TO 12 THSD BKN VCNTY KSAT TO
KAUS...AND TO SCT CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD FT BY FRIDAY EVENING. CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
UPDATE...
RAISING SOME MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER THAN EXPECTED CAA WILL MEAN MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION...
NEW NAM MODEL COMING IN SHOWING AGREEMENT WITH 18Z GFS WITH A BIT
MORE SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN HILL COUNTRY. MODEL SHOWS HIGHER
INCREASED MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL
ENHANCE PRECIP FROM GILLESPIE TO BURNET COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED
SNOW IN THOSE COUNTIES TO UP TO ONE INCH. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN
MOST RECENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP POPS IN
THIS REGION. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO FURTHER UPDATES
ARE ANTICIPATED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
AVIATION...
CIGS 5 THSD TO 10 THSD OVC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM AROUND AND AFTER 12Z TO
18Z. AFTER 18Z CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO 6 THSD
TO 12 THSD BKN VCNTY KDRT...AND CONTINUE AT 5 THSD TO 10 THSD
OVC WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW VCNTY KSAT TO KAUS. AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY...THE WINTER PRECIPITATION MAKING WEATHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO
BECOME 7 THSD SCT VCNTY KDRT TO CIGS 7 THSD TO 12 THSD BKN
VCNTY KSAT TO KAUS...AND TO FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD FT
BY FRIDAY EVENING. NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL RANGES
THANKS TO A STRATUS DECK THAT HAS SPREAD EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND
THE HARD FREEZE ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE
00Z TO 06Z RUNS...WHICH IS A DOWNTREND IN BOTH SNOW CHANCES AND
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. THE 18Z NAM12 IS MORE BULLISH ON
SNOW AMOUNTS THAN THE 12Z NAM12...WHICH ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO
OUR FORECAST SIDING WITH THE 12Z GFS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW WAS ISSUED EARLIER WITH AN EVENT TIME FROM 6AM-6PM
FRIDAY. GRAPHICS FOR OUR WEBSITE HAVE BEEN CREATED TO SHOW THE
THREAT AREAS AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAINS. THE SNOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL HAVE HIGHER PWATS
TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEPENING COASTAL TROUGH (DEVELOPING FRONT). AREAS BETWEEN LA
GRANGE...HALLETTSVILLE AND CUERO COULD SEE SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 2.0
INCHES. FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEAR FREEZING
FRIDAY EVENING...WE'LL LIKELY BE IN FOR A 12-16 HOUR HARD FREEZE
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING AT SOME
POINT FRIDAY.
GULF MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY OVER WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL
LAYER AND WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SPILL INTO OUR
AREA MONDAY...BUT STALL QUICKLY AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS. A STRONG
COLD FROPA WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO THIS COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 34 35 27 52 35 / 10 50 10 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 35 36 19 54 31 / 10 50 10 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 35 35 22 55 33 / 10 50 - 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 31 34 26 49 36 / 10 60 - 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 37 38 29 54 38 / 10 30 - 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 33 34 24 51 34 / 10 50 10 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 36 38 23 55 37 / 10 40 - 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 35 36 22 54 33 / 10 50 10 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 37 37 24 50 38 / 10 70 20 0 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 36 37 24 54 35 / 10 50 - 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 37 37 24 55 36 / 10 50 - 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...
LEE...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
05/08/11/25
