FXUS63 KICT 231148
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
548 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
KANSAS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE LIFR FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...VISIBILITIES COULD VERY WELL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1SM...BUT WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT LOW THIS FAR OUT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH...IF AT ALL...THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SCHRECK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
UPDATE...
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE MADE
SEVERAL CALLS TO DISPATCHERS AND THE OFFICERS WERE REPORTING DENSE
FOG IN THESE AREAS. THE FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING.
COX
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS.
TODAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A VERY POWERFUL CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE
DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ABOUT 100KTS AROUND 500MB
ACCORDING TO AN AIRCRAFT REPORT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THIS SYSTEM DIVE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM THAT
POINT...IT APPEARS LIKE THAT SYSTEM SHOULD HEAD EAST TOWARDS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS ALSO SHOWING A MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS DRY SLOT MAY CREEP
INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WHICH MAY CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE OTHER HAND MAY SEE THE FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. I WOULD ALSO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH...DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR. WE PLAN ON LEAVING
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...BUT
WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE IF THAT COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN THE DRY
SLOT...DUE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG BUT THE SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY SLIM AT THIS POINT.
TONIGHT:
LATEST IR LOOP IS SHOWING HIGHER CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THIS MAY AID IN
ENHANCING THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF THIS BAND
OF SNOW CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DRAW IN COLDER AIR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND CAUSE
THE FREEZING RAIN/RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/I-135 CORRIDOR. NOT
ANTICIPATING HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME...BUT THE WIND WILL CERTAINLY
BECOME A FACTOR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE GEFS/GFS IS STILL
SUGGESTING 50KT WINDSPEEDS AT 850MB WHICH WOULD SUGGEST 25 TO 30KT
WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH ANY SNOW FLYING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME WILL DEFINITELY HAMPER TRAVEL AND COULD CAUSE GROUND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND DENDRITIC SPLINTERING. AS A RESULT...WE WENT
AHEAD AND UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 06Z.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:
THIS TIMEFRAME REALLY IS STARTING TO LOOK UGLY. THE WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO KICK IN FULL FORCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY MIDDAY WITH SOME SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. NOT SURE IF IT WILL BE
HEAVY OR NOT...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SNOWFALL TO PRODUCE
BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS. EVEN AN INCH OF SNOW COULD CAUSE WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO THE GFS MAY REACH 35 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 55MPH. AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD
AND INTRODUCED THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BAND
WILL SETUP CAMP. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET IS SUGGESTING THAT A TROWAL
COULD FORM IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD REACH
6-8 INCHES IN THAT AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35
MPH MAY CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE
DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT THIS TIME TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY:
THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON THIS
PERIOD'S FORECAST...THEREFORE MADE ONLY FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES WHERE
CHANGES WERE MADE. THE 23/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS THAT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE GFS DOES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS SYSTEM NOW...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
SUCH.
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND LIKELY A
NEW SNOWPACK...WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE EVEN COLDER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT WANT
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
COX/SCHRECK
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONLY CHANGES TO 00Z ISSUANCE WERE TO INTRODUCE TSRA/VCTS TO KCNU &
KICT TERMINALS RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE ALL 5 TERMINALS TO REMAIN
SHROUDED IN LIFR CIGS & VSBYS FOR REST OF THE NIGHT AS -FZDZ/-FZRA
INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER CNTRL KS. WITH 850-MB WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT & WED MORNING EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO REMAIN IFR STRATIFIED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 38 27 27 14 / 100 70 80 60
HUTCHINSON 35 26 26 13 / 100 90 80 60
NEWTON 37 26 26 14 / 100 70 80 60
ELDORADO 41 29 29 14 / 100 70 80 60
WINFIELD-KWLD 46 30 30 15 / 100 70 80 60
RUSSELL 32 20 20 10 / 100 100 70 60
GREAT BEND 33 23 23 11 / 100 90 70 60
SALINA 34 24 24 12 / 100 90 80 60
MCPHERSON 35 26 26 13 / 100 80 70 60
COFFEYVILLE 56 36 36 18 / 100 90 80 60
CHANUTE 51 34 34 18 / 100 90 80 60
IOLA 49 34 34 17 / 100 90 80 60
PARSONS-KPPF 54 35 35 18 / 100 90 80 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ071-072-095-096-099-100.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ051>053-
067>070-082-083-091>093.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ053-069-070-093-094-098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-
033-047>051-067.
&&
$$
