FXUS64 KHGX 142110
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDEVELOPING INLAND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN 
AMPLE HORIZONTAL MIXING TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE FOG COVERAGE. 
HOWEVER WE ANTICIPATE FOG TO LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER REST OF
REGION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE COAST LINE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEING PRODUCED NEAR
AND ALONG THIS LINE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE TONIGHT. OUR REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE CONSIDERABLE
OVERRUNNING TUESDAY WITH THE VERY SHALLOW COLD AIR BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MUCH OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
ALONG WITH FRONT TO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TUESDAY. CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT BUT CLOUD COVERAGE QUITE EXTENSIVE FOR
A WHILE ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT
WITH UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTH TEXAS RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN GULF. BEST CHANCE OF
POPS MID TO LATE WEEK SHOULD BE COASTAL REGION WITH DECREASING
CHANCES NORTHWARD. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND COOL WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. 37

&&

.MARINE...
FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND WILL BE REISSUING THE DENSE 
FOG ADVISORY AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED ALONG THE COAST. 
VSBY IN THE BAYS/NEARSHORE OF 1/4 TO 1 MILE SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE. 
STILL POSSIBLE THAT IF THE WARM FRONT DOES MOVE INLAND PAST THE BAYS 
THE VSBY COULD IMPROVE BUT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND BY 6 OR 7 PM 
WOULD BE FOGGED BACK IN. FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE 
COASTAL WATERS AROUND SUNRISE OR JUST BEFORE...BUT FOG MAY LINGER 
PAST FROPA AS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POST FROPA CONTINUES. SCA 
CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER. 
45
&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR PREVAILS OVER THE REGION AS WARM FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE 
STALLED ON THE COAST. SHRA/TSRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE 
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE 
HOURS AS S/W SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL TX REGION. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC 
THAT CIGS WILL IMPROVE MUCH ABOVE 500 FT TODAY EXCEPT PERHAPS 
LBX/GLS WHERE WARM FRONT COULD REACH INTO. TEMPS DIP LATE AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING AND LIFR VSBY SHOULD WORSEN BACK DOWN TO 1/4-1/2SM AND 
VV001-OVC002 MOST OF THE NIGHT TIL A SHALLOW COLD FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH AND CIGS VERY SLOWLY LIFT BUT OVC004-0VC010 CIGS SHOULD 
CONTINUE POST FROPA...FOR IAH NORTHWARD AND LOWER FROM HOU SOUTHWARD 
THROUGH 18Z.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      47  52  39  54  42 /  60  30  10  10  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              50  57  43  55  43 /  70  40  20  20  20 
GALVESTON (GLS)            57  62  47  56  49 /  70  60  40  20  20 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST 
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN 
     JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...
     LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT 
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH 
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$