FXUS63 KABR 251558 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
958 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE SKYCOVER AND WX/POP GRIDS THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL AREA OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS ARE WORKING
SOUTH TOWARD THIS FORECAST AREA...SO BOLSTERED SKYCOVER FOR THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES AS WELL AS KEEPING
HIGH SKYCOVER AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN ZONES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST 40 MPH
SHOULD SUFFICE...WITH NO WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. REDUCED POPS/WX COVERAGE FROM NOW THROUGH 3 PM CST...AS ONLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWER ECHOES NOW SHOWING UP ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AFTER 3 PM CST...ONLY CARRYING AN ISOLATED
FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES FOR A
FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON PACE TO FINISH OUT THE DAY MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...PER PLENTIFUL CLOUDCOVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN BAND OF ISENTROPIC FORCING HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IS RESULTING IN
RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE I29 CORRIDOR. COLD ADVECTION HAS BEGUN...SO
EXPECT ANY RAIN TO BE SHORT LIVED. VISIBILITY UPSTREAM HAS BEEN
ONLY MARGINALLY IMPACTED...1 MILE OR GREATER...SO EXPECT LITTLE IF
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH LATER
TODAY...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES INTO FRIDAY. WILL SEE WEAK WAVE
OVERTOP THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY IMPACT WILL BE INCREASED
WARM ADVECTION AND HIGH CLOUDS.

H85/925 COLD ADVECTION HELPING TO INCREASE WINDS TODAY...HOWEVER
INTENSITY AND RELATED STRONG WINDS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE ADVERTISING WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS EARLIER
THURSDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS. WILL BE
UNDER WARM ADVECTION FOR REMAINDER OF PERIOD...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF AT 6-9C.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO HONOR THE PAST RUNS...WITH
A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENTLY PROGRESSIVE...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
SPLIT...MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW QUITE
SIMILAR WITH THE SPEED OF THE POSITIVE TILT TROF THAT MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BEING THAT THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EMPHATIC WITH DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE REGION. BUT THIS PROBABLY DOES NOT MATTER ALL THAT
MUCH. OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS ON TRACK AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE IT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK ABOUT RIGHT SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
THERE EITHER. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS. KATY
IS STILL MVFR AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST. KATY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REDUCING
VISIBILITY AS WELL. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE LOOPS THAT COULD REDUCE KABR TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...KEEFE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN