FXUS63 KLBF 072132
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER CALIFORNIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE USED A BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST. FIRST ROUND OF SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AS WAA
PRECIPITATION BEGINS WITH WEAK UPGLIDE. HAVE BEGUN WINTERSTORM
WARNING TONIGHT 6Z WITH INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z. QVECTORS AND 700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REALLY RAMPS UP OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREA SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LBF BUFR SOUNDING BASED
ON GFS HAS 1O MICROBARS OF DEEP LIFT TO 400MB AT 12Z WITH LARGE
DENDRITIC LAYER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS TO
PICKUP IN THE AFTERNOON TO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POSSIBLY EVEN SOME NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE WITH 15:1 RATIO. WITH WIDESPERAD
LIGHT SNOW COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS HAVE INCLUDED WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN WINTER ADVY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG
THE SD BORDER 3 INCHES TO 6 INCHES DOWN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER FRONTIER COUNTY. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
OVER NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AS WINDS COME
UP AND TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE EVENING WIND CHILLS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN. HAVE CONTINUED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH NEW FRESH SNOW AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO THE
COLDEST THIS SEASON. HAVE CRANKED THEM DOWN AT LEAST A CATEGORY
BELOW COLDEST GUIDANCE. MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED. HAVE CONTINUED
TREND INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS ZONAL PATTERN SETS UP. DEPENDING
ON SNOW COVER WARMING TREND ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK MAY HAVE TO BE TRENDED DOWNWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEB BY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. LOCAL IFR WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER 10Z. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 5 TO 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>025-035>037-
056>058-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ038-059-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NEZ006>010-026>029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...POWER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
