FXUS61 KCLE 261515
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY
SUNDAY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN NY WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA. CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK UP AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF JET ENERGY
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE WORDED THE CLOUD COVER IN THE
ZONES AS VARIABLE WITH PERIODS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS THOUGHTS. HOWEVER IT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE
DEGREES MORE AT BEST.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS. DOESNT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER MIDWEST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES TONIGHT THEN
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
MOVES EAST APPROACHING THE EASTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TONIGHT. THEN
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY...SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WEAK TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
TURN THE WINDS MORE WESTERLY...STARTING TO SETUP SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS TURN MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THEN
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...SO HELD
OFF THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND
THE LATEST GFS BOTH MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL
LAKES ON THURSDAY...MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN AND FLOW OFF THE
LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT JUST EAST OF ERIE PA. STILL SOME LINGER IFR CIGS
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR RAPIDLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD CIGS BKN-OVC025-035 WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TODAY.
EXCEPT FOR A WEAK BAND OF SNOW NOW OVER ERN INDIANA WHICH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS NW OH LATER THIS MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
OCCLUDED FRONT NOW NEAR ERIE PA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL
BECOME BASICALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH...NOT MOVING IT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS APPROACH GALE STRENGTH MONDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH...POTENTIAL FOR THE WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
