FXUS61 KCAR 262001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
301 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A
WARM FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MESSY WX PTRN XPCTD TO DVLP ACROSS THE FA FROM SW-NE OVRNT AND
CONT TO LIFT NEWRD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUN. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAK COASTAL FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR SRN AREAS AND THIS
CURRENTLY TRIGGERING SOME PATCHY LGT SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA.
OTHRWS...TRAPPED LOW-LVL MOISTURE WHICH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
AREA LAST TWO DAYS CONTS TO PRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES AND RATHER GLOOMY
CONDS. NXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ALREADY BEGINNING TO PUSH
ACROSS FAR WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONT TO PUSH NEWRD
BRINGING PRECIP INTO OUR SWRN AREAS AFTER MDNGT AND INTO FAR NERN
AREAS BY ERLY SUN AM. RATHER COMPLEX SYSTEM THE CAUSE OF ALL THIS
AND INVOLVES PRIMARY LOW PRES OVR THE UPPER MISS RVR VLY ATTM W/
AN OCLD FRONT XTNDG NE ACROSS THE GRT LAKES THEN SEWRD ACROSS THE
ERN GRT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. THIS OCLD FRONT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR WX NXT 24-356 HRS AS IT ROTATES NEWRD
TWRDS US THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATER SUN...

COLD AIR INITIALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID LVLS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW AS THE PRECIP SHIELD LIFTS NEWRD FROM SW-NE LATER
TNGT. SRN AREAS SHOULD SEE THE BRIEFEST PERIOD OF LGT SNOW AS THE
WARM AIR SHOULD RUSH IN RATHER QUICKLY SPCLY AT THE MID LVLS IN
THE ESERLY FLOW. FURTHER N THE SNOW SHOULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER
BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVR TO A WNTRY MIX AS ALL MODELS
SHOW CRITICAL THCKNS VALS RISING WELL ABV SNOW THRESHOLDS. IN THE
LOWER LVLS...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE SITUATIONS...THE
COLD AIR WILL BE TUF TO DISLODGE. AS A RESULT...AFTER A PERIOD OF
SNOW...XPCT ALL AREAS TO SEE A TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING
RAIN THEN FINALLY RAIN. SFC/BL TEMPS XPCTD TO MAINLY JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG THE COAST TNGT AND SHOULD RISE ABV FREEZING
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS BY ERLY SUN AM. THE TRANSITION TO RAIN
WILL CONT TO SLOWLY PROGRESS N AND NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE
FAR NRN AREAS LATE SUN AFTN. IT IS PSBL THAT AREAS SUCH AS THE
NORMALLY COLDER ST JOHN VALLEY COULD REMAIN JUST BLO FREEZING THRU
THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED WNTR ADV FOR ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BEGINNING LATE EVE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND FAR NERN
AREAS BY ERLY SUN. OVERALL...XPCT JUST A TRACE OF SNOW SRN AREAS
W/ A FEW INCHES PSBL FAR NRN AREAS. FAR NWRN AREAS SHOULD SEE THE
MOST SNOW W/ 4-5 INCHES PSBL THERE. OTHRWS...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET MOST AREAS...FREEZING RAIN APPEARS THE BIGGEST NUISANCE
AND XPCT ICE ACCUM OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO N AND
CENTRAL W/ LESSER AMOUNTS INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

FINALLY...A DECENT LOW-LVL SERLY JET XPCTD OF AROUND 60 KTS XPCTD TO
AFFECT OUR COASTAL AREAS FROM SUN AM THRU LATER SUN AFTN AND HAVE
ISSUED A WND ADV FOR OUR IMMEDIATE COAST...

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SHOWERS AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS...SKY COVER AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL USE
NAM12 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO GMOS WINDS. FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT WILL USE NAM12 THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN TRANSITION TO GMOS. THE QPF GENERATED WITH BLEND OF NAM12 AND
GFS40.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SE OF NOVA SCOTIA THAT IS EXITING THE
REGION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WRN ZONES. THE
HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SAT. A LOW
PRESS SYSTEM OVR THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON THE GFS...OVR ERN KY ON
THE ECMWF. THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WRAPPED TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS DEEPENS A SECONDARY LOW MOVES IT
EAST OUT OVR THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF MVS THE PRIMARY LOW INTO THE N ATLANTIC NEAR CAPE
COD AND DEEPENS IT...WRAPPING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND THIS LOW.
EXTENDING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO CNTR ME THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER THEY ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS. A BLENDED
TRACK WOULD PLACE THE LOW EAST OF CAPE COD WITH THE FRONT
EXTENDING INTO DOWNEAST ME. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED
GMOS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POP GRIDS TO BETTER SUPPORT ONE
ANOTHER. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CONDS ALL TAF SITES ATTM AND THESE XPCTD TO PERSIST UNTIL
LATE TNGT. THEREAFTER...XPCT CONDS TO LOWER TO IFR IN MXD PRECIP
AND DVLPG AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL DVLP AS TEMPS RISE ABV FREEZING
FROM S-N AND THE SNOW PACK BEGINS TO UNDERGO SOME MELTING...

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO MVFR
CONDTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS GLW CONDS ON THE WATERS FOR
SUN SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA IN FAVOR OF A GLW...

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND
GFS40...WILL MAKE SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENT TO WIND SPEED SUNDAY
EVENING. FOR WAVES: HAVE GENERATED GRIDS WITH WNA/4. WAVE GRAPHICS
INDICATES LONG FETCH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SO EXPECT
LONG PERIOD WAVE TO PERSIST THROUGH GOOD PORTION OF FORECAST.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     MEZ003>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR MEZ011-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR MEZ015>017.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE