FXUS65 KPUB 142210
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
303 PM MST MON DEC 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)

MAIN PROBLEM TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS WHETHER COLD AIR
PUSHES BACK UP THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER. INDICATIONS FROM THE
NAM12 ARE THAT SOME RETURN WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOWER AREAS 
AROUND LAMAR...SO DROPPED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER
AREAS.

TUESDAY...WITH FEWER CLOUDS...EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT...EXPECT ANY COLD AIR ON THE EASTERN PLAINS TO MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. IN THE HIGH VALLEYS...ANOTHER
GOOD RADIATION NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO EXPECT VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AROUND ALAMOSA. WITH THE AIRPORT NEXT TO THE RIVER...
ANY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COULD CAUSE MIST OR FOG TO FORM FOR A FEW 
HOURS AROUND DAWN. THIS WILL DELAY WARMING UNTIL MID MORNING IN THE
LOWER AREAS OF THE VALLEY. BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOUT THE SAME LEVEL AS TODAY...OR POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
-JKH-

.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)

MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS 
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. INDUCED LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 
CORRIDOR TO KEEP BREEZY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES 
AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS WEST OF I-25 KEEPING LOWS TEMPS MILD 
IN THESE AREAS WITH THE COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VALLEY
LOCALES. WITH MILD AIR ALOFT (0C TO 3C AT H7) SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL 
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WILL BE TEMPERED BY 
BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK GRADIENT WINDS.    

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHORT WAVE DIGGING 
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHICH CONTINUES TO DIVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES 
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY 
NIGHT AND ALSO CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. 12Z GFS 
REMAINS THE WEAKEST AND FURTHEST NORTH AND EAST WITH THE SYSTEM 
WHERE AS THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF REMAIN THE STRONGEST AND FURTHEST 
WEST WITH A SHARP TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS 
TIME...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE EC SOLUTION WITH KEEPING CHANCE AND 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES 
ACROSS CENTRAL MTS AND PIKES PEAK AND PALMER DVD REGIONS...THOUGH 
DID CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND WARMED UP 
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS ALL SOLUTIONS ARE A TAD 
SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM. 
 
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MODELS AGAIN DIFFER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH EC 
CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SLOW WARMUP WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW 
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HIGH AMPLITUDE 
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE 12Z GFS 
HOWEVER HAS PACIFIC ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST 
COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH 
MONDAY...WHICH SEEMS A TAD OVERDONE WITH SUCH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE 
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO NEAR 
SEASONAL HIGHS WITH SLIGHT POP ACROSS ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. -MW

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AROUND KALS
ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS...MIST AROUND KALS
FROM 10Z TO 15Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. -JKH-

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/23