FXUS62 KCAE 102317
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
617 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF WILL BEGIN SPREADING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
RAIN MAY BEGIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER AREA TONIGHT. GOOD COLD ADVECTION AS
WELL. IF WINDS GO CALM FOR A GOOD PERIOD.,,RADIATIVE TEMPERATURE
PROCEDURE GIVES LOWER TO MID 20S. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NIGHT. SO
DECIDED TO GO MID TO UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY COLD AIR SHOULD SETTLE OVER AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
GULF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF
PRECIP TO AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL GO 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE 09Z-15Z SATURDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN SNOW GROWTH AREA THIS TIME FRAME TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SORT OF MIXED PRECIP. AGAIN WITH A LOW CHANCE 20-30 PERCENT. GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWED IP AS PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL
THROUGH A 4-6 KFT FT LAYER OF +2/+3 C. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT 2 OR 3 AM...THEN TEMPERATURES RISING AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN. WILL MENTION 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED
WITH SLEET WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THEN TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO THE
UPPER 30S BY LATE MORNING AND LOWER 40S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE 60-70 PERCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AGREE WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN EXTENDED. SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY OVER AREA MONDAY BUT
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN. SHORT WAVE EXITS TO EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER COLDER AIR IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SUNDAY HIGHS BELOW NORMAL IN UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN LOWER TO MID
60S. THEN DROP BACK INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW
MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. NO FOG DUE TO VERY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. EXPECT SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW CIGS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
