FXUS61 KGYX 302034
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE...AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL MOVE EAST- NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTH OF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...RAIN SHOWERS WERE ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS. SOME LIGHT MAINLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING BACK
IN THE COLD AIR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT...INGREDIENTS ARE
IN PLACE FOR SOME SPOTTY BLACK ICE FORMATION ON ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY BUT A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ALONG THE QUEBEC-MAINE
BORDER LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT...UNDER A
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. ATMOSPHERE WILL START OUT VERY DRY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE ONSET. ON WEDNESDAY...BANK OF DYNAMICS
AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST. 

FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS MODELS FOR TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW ON THURSDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD RACE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW
FORMING ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST OF MAINE.  

STRONG WIND FIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH UP TO 60
KTS OF WIND DOWN TO AROUND 2 KFT FORECAST BY BOTH THE WRF AND GFS.
MUCH OF THIS WILL RIDE OVER AND INVERSION...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ANY CASE THURSDAY MORNING.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR
RAPIDLY WRAPS AROUND SYSTEM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY.
EURO MORE TAME WITH THE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER IF THIS MODEL SHOWS
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL PLACE A CHANCE OF
SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW...AND WILL LOOK FOR AND WAIT FOR RUN TO
RUN AND MORE PERSISTENT MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY.

HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THEREAFTER.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPWM ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 22 UTC AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL LINGER.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN. SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW IMPROVEMENT ON
THURSDAY.  POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY IN DEVELOPING SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS AND WINDS PEAKING JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. 

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES AS SOME POINT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND PASSES
JUST TO OUR WEST. GUSTY WINDS NEAR PROXIMITY OF DEVELOPING COASTAL
LOW ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST. JEAN/JWC