FXUS64 KTSA 151706
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1106 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH PLENTY
OF SOLAR ENERGY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
SOME TWEAKS TO SKY/TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS..OTHERWISE NOT
MUCH CHANGE.
GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY 15Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY AND
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR A COLD DAY TODAY, WENT WITH THE
COLDER MET NUMBERS AS THEY WERE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH WHAT
THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE. ALSO WENT BELOW THE MAV TONIGHT
AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD BE SOME PRECIPITATION
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. DID MENTION SNOW BUT IF IT DID SNOW IT WOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY. THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER. AT THIS TIME
DID A COMPROMISE WITH THE TEMPERATURES IN THAT TIME RANGE
WHICH WOULD HINT THE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 35 23 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 43 26 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 40 23 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 33 16 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 38 20 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 35 20 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 38 22 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 31 19 48 29 / 0 0 0 0
F10 38 21 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 43 27 50 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....23
