FXUS63 KDDC 150813
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
213 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST AT 00Z
TUES REMAINS PROGGED BY ALL THE MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY TONIGHT. AS IT DOES THE NW FLOW WILL
BACK MORE TO THE WEST WHICH SHOULD AID IN IMPROVING THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS. 00Z NAM AND GFS 85H TEMPS PROGGED
OVER WRN KS AT 00Z WED SUGGEST AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S BUT AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THIS SHALLOW
COLD AIR WILL ERODE...ESPECIALLY IN THE N/NE WHERE SNOW COVER
REMAINS. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE COLD BIAS IN THE
GRIDS WHERE IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TODAY
WHILE TRENDING TOWARDS THESE WARMER 85H TEMPS NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER.
ON WEDNESDAY THIS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT INTO THE CNTL CONUS. 925-85H TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER 2-4C SO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN KS. 9H TEMPS AT 00Z THURSDAY EVEN
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE OK BORDER SO WILL
FOLLOW THIS TREND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. IN THE N/NE LINGERING
SNOW COVER AND INCREASE CLOUDS WILL HURT THIS WARMING TREND. AS A
RESULT HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE COOLER MET NUMBERS NORTH OF A DDC-
GCK LINE.
DAYS 3-7...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY RESULTING
IN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING
WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS.
THE MODELS HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE BIT MORE IN LINE BUT STILL DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
AS A RESULT, WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TEMPERATURES AT H85 JUST ABOVE 0C
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SO, SHOULD EXPECT HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S(F) AND 50S(F) BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERS SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN
WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA. PLAN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY 10 TO
20KT THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 15 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 35 14 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 44 24 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 40 20 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 18 9 35 16 / 0 0 0 0
P28 32 18 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN18/32/32
