FXUS63 KMPX 261137
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...

N AREA OF LIFT AND VORT LOBE STILL AFFECTING WESTERN MN EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SATURATION ON THE 285 ISENTROPIC
SURFACE. WINDS KIND OF MARGINAL FOR BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE NATURE OF THE SNOW. THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR COUNTIES
THE MOST AFFECTED. COULD BE A AN INCH OR 2 OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...SO
WILL KEEP A AN ADVSY GOING. STILL SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT/TROWAL
ACTION POINTED OUT WEST TOO. OTHERWISE A COUPLE OF LOBES STILL
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW FOR CHANCE TYPE POPS IN THE EAST. ONE LAST
PUSH OF PV ROTATES AROUND FROM N IL THROUGH WI INDICATED ON NAM
AND GFS THIS EVENING. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE ION THE
CYCLONIC FLOW INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY EASTERN AREAS. THE TEMPE
FORECAST A LITTLE TRICK THIS MORNING WITH THE BOUNDARY/OCCLUSION
WORKING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS WILL FALL A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN RECOVER SOME IN TH SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

EXPECT CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH MI TEMPS DROPPING BELOW GUID ACROSS THE FRESH SNOW. MAX
TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO RECOVER IN A FEW AREAS WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
MET NUMBERS IN A FEW SPOTS. 

FAIRLY QUIET INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK..BUT THERE ARE HINTS
THAT AN ARCTIC INTRUSION MAY OCCUR TOWARD NEW YEARS. THE NAEFS IS
SUGGESTING HIGHER PROS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THE FIRST WEEK OF THE
NEW YEAR IN AND AREA FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN
THE NEWER SNOW COVER AND NOW EXTENDING FARTHER WEST...SEEMS TO
MAKE SENSE.
 
&&

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

FRONTAL OCCLUSION LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH TO NEAR A KSTC/KAXN REGION 
THIS MORNING.  THIS REGION DOWN TO NEAR KRWF WILL BE MOST AFFECTED 
BY -SN/MVFR OCNL IFR CIGS THIS MORNING.  LATEST NAM INDICATES LITTLE 
CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WILL INTRODUCE 
SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT PERIOD...KEEPING KAXN MVFR.

KMSP SEEING SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT...WITH DRYING 
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER WC WI INTO EC MN.  WILL MENTION SOME VFR 
CONDS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. UNCERTAIN IF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER 
THIS REGION LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE 2K FT CIGS INTO 
THE LATE MORNING.AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN FA.  COULD SEE A BRIEF 
SW-/FLURRY OVER THIS REGION AS WELL.  EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITHIN SYSTEM. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CHIPPEWA-
     DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-REDWOOD-STEVENS-SWIFT-
     TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-
     MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-RENVILLE-
     SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JPR/DWE