FXUS65 KMSO 301049
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
349 AM MST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TODAY. SOME VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO BE LONG LIVED OR WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS. LATER IN THE DAY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES
COULD BE SEEN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST MONTANA...AHEAD OF THE IN
COMING FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...MOVING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
COOL ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM TODAYS READINGS...WHICH WOULD BRING
THEM DOWN TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING SOME COLDER ARCTIC AIR MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
INTO CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOW MUCH OF THIS COLD
AIR MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE DIVIDE IS STILL IN QUESTION. AFTER
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN MONTANA AS A RIDGE BUILDS OFF OF THE
WASHINGTON/OREGON COASTS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMALS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AFTER THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS REMAINS VERY LOW. THE
SOLUTIONS DO NOT REMAIN CONSTANT BETWEEN MODEL RUNS OR AMONG THE
DIFFERENT MODELS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER
ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO OVER NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM
SATURDAY ON IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER AND THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...COULD BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 

&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY...WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
AND INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/AVIATION...KOLATA