FXUS61 KOKX 052113
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING...AND REACH NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...NOW JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE NYC METRO. AS SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST...UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH
GRADUAL FALL IN SURFACE TEMPS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED IN
THE DC ARE THIS MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW CHANGEOVER IN THE NYC
METRO AREA SHORTLY.
TEMPS SLOWLY FALL INTO THE 30S OR THROUGH THE 30S FOR THE
INTERIOR. ALL TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNSET (INCLUDING
THE INTERIOR)
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SYSTEM IS MOVING FASTER THAN MODELS CAN KEEP UP WITH.
EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE IMAGES (WATER VAPOR AND IR) SUPPORTS
THE ENDING OF PCPN THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT
COAST AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MAY SEE A
COATING ON THE GRASS WITH BURST OF PCPN EXPECT AROUND 00Z.
INLAND...TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY GET DOWN TO FREEZING BUT THIS IS
AS PCPN ENDS. STILL GOING WITH SUB-ADVISORY AMOUNTS HERE TOO...THOUGH
HIGHEST TERRAIN (>1000') MAY SEE 2 TO 4". AVERAGE INLAND OF 1 TO
2 INCHES APPEARS ON TRACK AND THAT'S MAINLY ON THE GRASS.
WITH TEMPS INLAND FALLING TO JUST BELOW FREEZING...SLUSH MAY
FREEZE UP.
WE'LL BE ISSUING AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SUB-
ADVISORY EVENT FOR THE INTERIOR.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH PASSAGE OF LOW PRES...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND SLIGHTLY LESS INLAND.
HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION SUN BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON
MON. WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO
PCPN...THEN HIGH PRES RETURNS ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT
THE AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON THE PRIMARY LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT DISAGREE ON SECONDARY
LOW EVOLUTION. GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SECONDARY SFC LOW AND
TRACKS IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER INLAND WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT. EITHER WAY...THIS IS A
WARM SCENARIO WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. SFC TEMPS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP IN NW INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AT PRECIP ONSET.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...GUSTY W WINDS EXPECTED WITH COLDER TEMPS TO
END THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN IS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM
THE WEST AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. NO SLEET
IS EXPECTED.
FOR THE NY METRO...NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ON RUNWAYS.
KHPN SHOULD SEE A SLUSHY LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON THE RUNWAY WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AFTER SNOW ENDS. A WET 1-2" IS
EXPECTED FOR KSWF.
CIGS/VSBY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC - EXPECT AMENDMENTS FOR THIS
THOUGHT THE EVENING. OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WITH GENERAL IFR VSBY
ONCE IN SNOW.
SOLID VFR ON SUNDAY WITH MODERATELY GUSTY NW FLOW DIMINISHING IN
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUN THROUGH WED...
SUN AFTN-TUE...VFR.
WED...SUB-VFR...WIND/RAIN
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA WAS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND WILL REACH NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHEAST WINDS WERE GUSTING TO GALE FORCE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ELSEWHERE. AS THE LOW PASSES THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST...AND WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR GALE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY
WINDS ON ALL THE WATERS ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WERE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 FT AND WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN SEAS BUILDING ON
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.
ROUGH...SCA CRITERIA SEAS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY DAY AS THIS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1/3 TO 1/2 INCH QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR CT (HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY
SEE AROUND 3 INCHES)...WHILE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF WITH LITTLE OR
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES
WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST/MET
NEAR TERM...JST/MET
SHORT TERM...JST/MET
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JST
MARINE...MET/MAS
HYDROLOGY...JST/MET
