FXUS63 KLBF 042037
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
237 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AT H5 A STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW WITH TROUGH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MCD FOR LA FOR HEAVY SNOW AS A STRONG WAVE ROUNDS
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER CIRCULATION MOVING INTO WESTERN MT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY...ALONG WITH A SHOT OF SNOW ON 
SUNDAY. BRIEF WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF SHORT 
WAVE DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM WARM H925 TEMPS 
TO AROUND +2C ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTH. 
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWEST...AND NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY 
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT 
INTO SUNDAY. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IN REGARDS TO QPF...AS IT HAS SHOWN 
THE MOST CONSISTENCY. LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY 
MORNING...WITH THE -12 TO -18C LAYER ALOFT SATURATED. SHOULD SEE 
SNOW SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING...AND END SUNDAY 
EVENING. AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY 
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO INCHES 
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HAVE INCREASED 
POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY /50 PERCENT RANGE/ ALONG AND 
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY WITH THE COLD ARCTIC 
AIR IN PLACE...AS SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH. AS A 
RESULT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR THAN 
CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.   

EXTENDED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SYSTEM DIVING INTO 4 CORNERS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL EJECT ENERGY ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF EURO WHICH IS FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GLOBAL. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF SYSTEM. HAVE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC QPF GUIDANCE AND WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED THE RATIO TO 15:1. GLOBAL SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SOLUTION AND FURTHER SOUTH. GLOBAL ALSO HAS A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT TO IT ON TUESDAY. SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD YIELD LARGER
SNOW TOTALS. HAVE CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK MONDAY AND TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WARMING INTO THE
30S BY SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW
RETROGRADES WEST THROUGH THE WEEK ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE...OR 18Z 
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND 
THEN LIGHT WEST TONIGHT. ONLY SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE 
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...TAYLOR/POWER
AVIATION...TAYLOR