FXUS63 KDMX 260530 AAA
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1129 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
COLD AIR IS BEING BROUGHT INTO THE CWA THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...BANDS OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A VORT LOBE WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE LOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 285K ENHANCES LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS
THE AIR COOLS TONIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN MAINLY TO SNOW. THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE ACCUMULATION AS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD MELT ON
CONTACT WITH A WARMER SURFACE. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY
TIGHT SO WINDS OVER 20 MPH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING OUT AROUND 12Z AS THE LOW
LOSES ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL IOWA WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING IN.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THRU WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING EASTERN TROF WILL BE PULLING AWAY ON THURSDAY AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SCOURED DURING THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR PUSH INTO
THE STATE. WL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE WITH THERMAL TROF OVER STATE
EARLY GIVING WAY TO WAA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WAA WILL INCREASE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE. TEMPS SHOULD COOL NICELY TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE GONE WITH COOL END OF GUIDANCE. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL SEE THERMAL RIDGE PUSH INTO THE STATE WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES. HAVE GONE ON HIGH END OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND FAVORABLE WINDS.
PROGRESSIVE TROF WILL ENTER THE WESTERN US EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH
SYSTEM SPLITTING. NORTHERN END WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND PASS
THROUGH THE MIDWEST BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US AND
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IA WILL GENERALLY BE IN
BETWEEN THE MAJOR FORCING OF THESE TWO SYSTEM WITH LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. ONLY CONCERN IS NEW 12Z EURO WHICH DOES GRAZE FAR
SOUTHERN IA WITH PCPN INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO NEXT WEEK FROM SATURDAYS
WARMTH TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...
26/06Z...PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THRU 08Z NEAR KOTM AND KALO. STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OUT THU MORNING MAINLY FROM 12-16Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HINSBERGER
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON
