FXUS65 KLKN 061148
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
348 AM PST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING BETWEEN A DUSTING AND 2 INCHES TO VALLEYS AND 2 TO 4
INCHES TO THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER STORM IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AND SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT 500MB A DOUBLE-BARRELED
LOW WITH CENTERS JUST NORTH OF SLC AND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WILL ROTATE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE THROUGH MONDAY...MERGING INTO
A TROF THAT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. ALL OF THE SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
RATHER COMPLEX ARRANGEMENT. THE CHANCES FOR QPF SUNDAY NIGHT...
MONDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL INCREASE WITH EACH PERIOD. THE
TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST INTO UTAH TUESDAY MORNING. QPF...IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT THAT WILL LIMIT DENDRITIC GROWTH. TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN VALLEYS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD THRU THE SHORT
TERM...EXCEPT WARMING AT NIGHT DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS. REA

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER 
PATTERN WILL GRIP THE SILVER STATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS A 
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. 
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE 00UTC OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICTED 
A SHORT WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY 
NIGHT...THOUGH THE 00UTC ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. 
REGARDLESS...NEITHER MODEL DEPICTED MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT...AND THUS 
KEPT POPS LOW AND MAINLY CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO 
COUNTY. WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY SO KEPT POPS VERY 
LOW AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER A BIT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER 
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC...SO CUT 
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS 
NORTHERN AREAS. FRIDAY MAY TURN OUT MOSTLY DRY BEHIND THE 
SYSTEM...SO CUT POPS ON THAT DAY SOMEWHAT. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES 
FROM THE PACIFIC ON SATURDAY...SO GRADUALLY RAMPED UP POPS FROM 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 

TEMPERATURE WISE...IT STARTS OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY...WITH VALLEY LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS FAILING TO 
REACH FREEZING IN MANY INSTANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE 
SOMEWHAT AS STORM SYSTEMS STREAM INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC...BRINGING A 
MORE MARITIME AIR MASS...SO THAT BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT 
BE FAR FROM NORMAL. RCM
&&

.AVIATION...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS 
TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS MAY 
PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND KELY. A STORM 
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG 
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. RCM
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

90/93/93