FXUS63 KICT 212356
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
556 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ALL 5 TERMINALS TO REMAIN IN VFR STATUS UNTIL ~22/09Z AROUND WHICH
TIME SCT-BKN STRATUS ~1,000FT & MVFR VSBYS WILL COMMENCE. FOR SC &
SE KS SUCH CIGS & VSBYS INDUCED BY WARM/MOIST ADVECTION JUST OFF
THE DECK & FOR CNTRL KS DUE TO POST-COLD FRONTAL WRAP-AROUND. LIFR
CIGS ~500FT NOT OUT OF REALM OF POSSIBILITY TUE MORNING MOST AREAS
(ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL KS WHERE BOTH KRSL & KSLN MAY BE SHROUDED
IN ~500FT CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN
925-800MB LAYER PRONOUNCED. AS SUCH TOOK PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH
RESPECT TO CIGS THRU TUE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...AND ITS POSSIBLE
EFFECTS ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
TONIGHT
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH
SOME AREAS OF THICKER FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE DECOUPLED REGION AHEAD
OF THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUE-THU
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE FOR THIS PERIOD. WE COULD SEE
POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER A PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY
NIGHT IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN DIP BELOW FREEZING. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LIQUID FORM ON WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION...HOWEVER CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE A SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MIGRATING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD GIVE WAY TO
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD IS WHEN THE
WEATHER TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE. STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REALLY ENHANCE THE VERTICAL
MOTION ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM LATEST DATA
SUGGESTS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION LINE OF (RAIN/SLEET/SNOW)
MIGRATING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING. THE LIFT WITH-IN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH LAYER REALLY GETS GOING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECTING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS TOO AFFECT THAT AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UNUSUALLY STRONG WITH THIS AS 850MB WIND
SPEEDS OF 50-65KTS DURING THE DAY WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. TRAVEL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS COULD BE IMPOSSIBLE.
THE KEY THINGS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECASTERS TO MONITOR WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION AND DIRECTION OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DURING THE DAY
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. IF WE SEE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS REGION
AND EXPAND NORTHWARD COMPLETING THE SECONDARY WARM CONVEYOR BELT
FROM THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS...THIS COULD CREATE AN INSTANT OCCLUSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SYSTEM EVEN
MORE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING BUT WE
DID MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT ON THE SOUTHERN END...WHERE WARMER AIR
COULD HOLD IN A BIT LONGER. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS
AWAY SO CHANGES ON TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
EXTENDED: FRI-MON
COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND SEEM
REASONABLE...AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OF THE
REGION. WE COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE WOUND UP SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE...DRY AND COLD
WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. ANY SNOW COVER WOULD ONLY CHILL TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE
FOR THE REGION.
JAKUB
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL CREATE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY 12Z TUESDAY...AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT CNU. TONIGHT WITH IT BEING GENERALLY CLEAR ALOFT...LIGHT
WINDS AND SHALLOW MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
DUNTEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 32 45 41 50 / 10 30 70 60
HUTCHINSON 29 41 37 44 / 10 30 70 60
NEWTON 31 43 40 48 / 10 30 70 60
ELDORADO 33 46 42 51 / 10 30 70 60
WINFIELD-KWLD 34 49 44 53 / 10 30 70 60
RUSSELL 25 34 31 33 / 10 20 70 70
GREAT BEND 26 37 32 35 / 10 20 70 70
SALINA 27 37 34 37 / 10 20 70 70
MCPHERSON 28 40 37 42 / 10 20 70 60
COFFEYVILLE 38 49 47 57 / 10 30 70 70
CHANUTE 37 46 45 54 / 10 30 70 80
IOLA 36 46 44 53 / 10 30 70 80
PARSONS-KPPF 38 48 46 56 / 10 30 70 80
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ052-053-068-069-082-083-091>093.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067.
&&
$$
