FXUS63 KGID 011128
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
528 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.AVIATION...12Z GRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...BUT THERE
ARE CHANGES BY MIDDAY AS A COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 18 TO 25 KTS WITH
STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT. THOSE WINDS WILL
HOLD ON THROUGH THE EVENING. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY LOW CLOUDS
OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST...WITH PRIMARY
CONCERN CONTINUING TO LIE WITH TEMPERATURES. BEEN ANOTHER NIGHT OF
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SATELLITE/UA OB DATA
SHOWING THE CWA SITTING TWO SYSTEMS. SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHERN MEX AND IS
MAKING SOME PROGRESS EAST...WHILE FURTHER NORTH...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITS IN WESTERN ND...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT
NOT FAR BEHIND. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT OTHER THAN BRINGING A WESTERLY SHIFT TO THE WINDS...ITS
NOT HAVING MUCH OF AN IMPACT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SFC 
COLD FRONT.  MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING THAN THEY 
WERE LAST NIGHT...SHOWING THE FRONT STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE CWA 
BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND BY 00Z TONIGHT IS JUST OUTSIDE THE SE 
CORNER.  THIS MAKES THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TRICKY...BUT FELT THAT 
FORECAST HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS SO ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  
HIGHS RANGE FROM NEAR 50 IN THE NW TO THE MID 50S IN THE SE...WITH 
THE NW 2/3 OF THE CWA SEEING STEADY/FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THE SE PEAKING IN THE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE 
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ALL THE WAY THROUGH. WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE 
FRONT...WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH 
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL 
PASSAGE...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR PRESENT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK...HASNT BEEN MUCH CHANGE 
WITH THE COLDER TEMPS COMING TO THE REGION.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE TROUGH EVENTUALLY DOMINATING THE 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS AS THE SOUTHERN 
STREAM LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASE TOGETHER.  COLDER AIR 
WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL IN BEHIND TODAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH 850MB 
TEMPS THIS MORNING EXPECTED NEAR 10C...AND BY 12Z FRIDAY THEY WILL 
HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO -10 TO -15C /DEPENDING ON THE MODEL/.  SO 
FORECAST HIGHS ARE GOING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S TODAY DOWN TO THE 
UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S FOR THUR/FRIDAY...WITH LOWS FOR FRIDAY
IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.  KEPT WED/FRI DRY...AND FLURRIES IN FOR
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE COLDEST AIR BUILDS IN THE LOWER MID LEVELS BRINGING STEEPER
LAPSE RATES AND RH INCREASING IN THE DENDR LAYER ALL WOULD HELP
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS...ESP TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER AIR FROM
850MB DOWN TO THE SFC...SO LEFT AS FLURRIES FOR NOW.

FOR THE WEEKEND...FORECAST REMAINS DRY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE 
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING 
ACROSS THE REGION.  DID MAKE A FEW DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS FOR 
SAT/SUN AS COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE 
CONUS. NO CHANGES MADE TO MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$