FXUS64 KMEG 022350
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
550 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING INTO KY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
IS IN ERN AR. STEADY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS NE AR/SE MO WHILE
BROKEN AREAS OF RAIN OCCUR ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING
CAUSING THE RAIN TO END. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH A COOL NORTHWEST WIND.

A HIGH WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW
IN THE GULF MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A DUSTING OR LESS.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY WITH SATURDAY BEING COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPS
IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THERE WAS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO TO KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

CIGS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO MVFR LEVELS AT ALL SITES BY 03Z-04Z AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN BY 13Z-16Z BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN
OVC THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A 900 MB INVERSION. KJBR
COULD SEE CLOUDS GO BKN TO SCT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT
LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN NORTHWEST AT 6-9 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

CCD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  36  46  31  43 /  40   0   0  10 
MKL  37  46  26  41 /  40   0   0  10 
JBR  33  43  27  41 /  50   0   0  10 
TUP  38  48  31  44 /  30   0   0  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$