FXUS66 KLOX 111836
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1035 AM PST FRI DEC 11 2009
NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
WET AND BREEZY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO SEASONAL VALUES ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...COOL AND WET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN LAST NIGHT IS EXITING
THE AREA AFTER DUMPING 0.25"-075" ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OVER 1.00". WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500 FEET...RESORT LEVELS
RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISHED OVER THE VTU/LAX MOUNTAINS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE BLOB OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS MORNING WHICH
HANDLES SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TO HANDLE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AND POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS.
THE WET AND UNSETTLED FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
12Z MODELS STILL MOVE ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
THIS IMPULSE TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM LAST NIGHT IN
TERMS OF PRECIP TOTALS (0.25"-0.75" OF RAIN) AND SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 6000 FEET.
AFTER THIS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE
A LULL UNTIL THE THIRD...AND MOST IMPRESSIVE...SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS THIRD SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES) ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AT THIS TIME...FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WILL
WATCH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST IN CASE IT HOLDS TOGETHER WHICH COULD IMPACT VENTURA COUNTY.
*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS THE STORM TRACK MOVING NORTHWARD WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A NICE WARMING TREND BRING MAX TEMPS TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE RIDGE DOES BREAK DOWN A
LITTLE TOWARDS MID WEEK BUT MOST MDLS SHOW THE STORMS MOVING NO
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE BAY AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...11/1835Z.
A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME
SHOWERS TO THE TAFS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ATTEMPTS TO HOLD TOGETHER. THE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL FIRST AFFECT KSBA AND KOXR
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN AFFECT KLAX AND KLGB AS WELL AS KBUR
AND KVNY WITHIN TWO TO THREE HOURS. THE RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT.
KLAX AND KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES...THEN SOME
DETERIORATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME IFR PERIODS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN AREA OF SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOLLOWED BY AN IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...ASR
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