FXUS65 KABQ 242159
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...BRISK NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW TRACKS FARTHER EASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO. NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAY DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING BUT WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN FRIDAY AS UPPER WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH DUMBELLING LOW
TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO KANSAS...INCREASE OVER NEW
MEXICO. A 10 TO 14 MB SURFACE GRADIENT WILL EXIST FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE CHRISTMAS DAY...LEADING TO SOME BRISK
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY...AS INDICATED BY MODELS...ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS BORDER AND
SOUTHWARD. SOME FAVORED AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BLOW AS WELL. MAY
WELL BE SOME SPOTTY AREAS THAT HIT WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY...SUCH AS
CLINES CORNERS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...BUT
WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
FOG/LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL TONIGHT APPEARS LIMITED TO NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL LOCALES. WILL HANG ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH FORECASTED UPWARD MOTION.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A FLURRY COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT EXCEPT FOR THE
PEAKS...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO FINALLY DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WELL BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD START TO MODIFY SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO IMPACT THE STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS AS IF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WILL BE MOST
AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...MOST AREAS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME MELTING HAS OCCURRED...EVEN WITH THE COOL
WEATHER TODAY SO CANT RULE OUT SOME LOW CIGS AND VIS REDUCTIONS
LATER TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND THE WIND LOWERS IN
SPOTS. THUS...HAVE HEDGED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH GUP AND FMN
ACCORDINGLY. GENERALLY FOCUSED AROUND SUNUP FRI MORNING. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A 5000 FOOT DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT LOOK FOR
THAT TO EVENTUALLY ERODE OUT TODAY. IT IS LESS LIKELY THAT LOW
CLOUDS WILL REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WIND EFFECTS AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. DECIDED TO NOT ALLUDE TO ANY RESTRICTIONS
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WEATHER
MODELS POINT TO THE HIGHEST MOISTURE SATURATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...DUE
TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...A STRONG WIND GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY FOR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS ABOVE 7000 FEET. WINDS
RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE STATE. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION SHOULD BE GOOD MOST AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHELTERED AREAS WILL SEE LOWER
RATES. IT APPEARS THAT SATURDAY/S VENT RATES WILL LOWER ACROSS THE
BOARD BUT REMAIN AT FAIR OR HIGHER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. THAT
LOWERING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL LOWER QUITE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. IT
APPEARS VALUES WILL BE A BIT MORE STEADY OVER THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
THE WILDCARD WOULD BE MELTING SNOW AND HOW IT AFFECTS HUMIDITY
READINGS NEAR THE GROUND.
LATEST LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS ARE POINTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK FOR THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM. OF COURSE...STILL A LOT OF
TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN SO STAY TUNED ON THAT. AT THIS TIME...BEST
CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.IN THE MEANTIME...COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 4 26 5 27 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... -11 22 -10 26 / 5 10 5 5
CUBA............................ -5 26 -4 28 / 5 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... -3 33 -5 31 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 2 30 2 30 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 3 34 2 32 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 3 32 4 35 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 16 49 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... -12 20 -15 25 / 5 10 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... -4 28 -4 30 / 5 5 5 0
PECOS........................... 4 26 -1 35 / 5 5 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... -8 23 -10 25 / 5 10 5 5
RED RIVER....................... -12 19 -14 22 / 5 10 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... -3 19 -8 23 / 5 10 10 5
TAOS............................ -6 26 -8 27 / 5 5 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 3 31 5 34 / 5 5 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 1 25 1 29 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 8 28 8 31 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 12 34 14 32 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 16 37 17 36 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 8 38 9 37 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 9 38 9 37 / 0 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 10 40 11 40 / 0 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 8 37 10 37 / 0 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 13 44 16 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 8 31 9 30 / 5 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 10 30 13 31 / 5 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 10 27 10 29 / 5 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 17 36 16 37 / 5 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 20 44 19 37 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 22 38 20 35 / 5 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 5 26 5 32 / 5 5 5 5
RATON........................... -1 30 1 32 / 5 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 6 29 4 31 / 5 5 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 8 35 13 35 / 5 5 5 5
ROY............................. 6 32 10 34 / 5 5 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 10 37 10 38 / 5 5 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 10 37 11 39 / 5 5 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 11 38 12 38 / 5 5 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 15 39 17 41 / 5 5 5 0
PORTALES........................ 16 40 17 43 / 5 5 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 16 43 16 44 / 5 5 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 20 48 23 46 / 5 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 18 47 20 43 / 5 5 0 0
ELK............................. 20 45 21 40 / 5 5 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
