FXUS65 KABQ 020459
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
959 PM MST TUE DEC 1 2009
.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR TO MODERATE CHANGES FOR EVENING UPDATE...MOST NOTABLY
WITH EXPANDING SOMEWHAT THE FOG AND ADDING IT INTO THE PRE
MIDNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL. MAY WELL DECREASE AGAIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS SOME SUBSIDENCE AND/OR FILTERING IN OF DRIER AIR
OCCURS AND THE REFREEZING OF LEFTOVER SNOW LOCKS UP SOME OF THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DECREASED SLIGHTLY THE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT
FOR THE SANGRES AND EASTWARD AND ALSO LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR
TONIGHT MAINLY PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL AND SE NM W INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS.
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&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MST TUE DEC 1 2009...
THE SLOW MOVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO PULL EASTWARD INTO WEST TX.
A BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY HAS ALSO
BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY PICKED
UP ON THIS WELL DEFINED TROWAL FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY INDICATES THIS FEATURE IS
DISSIPATING THEREFORE ALL HIGHLIGHTS WILL EXPIRE ON TIME AT 4 PM.
THE FOCUS SHIFTS QUICKLY OFF TO OUR NORTH AS THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS BUILDING STRENGTH ALL THE WAY FROM EASTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS IS HELPING FORCE
A SURFACE FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH INTO THE NE PLAINS OF NM. THE 12Z NAM/
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AGREE WITH VERY LITTLE SPREAD AS THE SURFACE FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS...SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND SNOW TO DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE RATON RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTS AND INTO
THE PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM THEREFORE ONLY ADVISORY LEVELS ARE
ANTICIPATED. AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON NM...WE WILL BE MORE CERTAIN
ABOUT LOCAL EFFECTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES TO NARROW IN ON AMOUNTS.
AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE...THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM AS LOW AS -20C OVER THE NE PLAINS TO -12C OVER THE SW
MTS. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN VALLEYS.
A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED REGARDING PRECIP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE PACIFIC.
EXTENDED MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE LOCATION
OF ANY SINGLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR CERTAIN
THAT LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY. GUYER
.AVIATION...
THROUGH THE VERY NEAR TERM...ROW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS.
I BELIEVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THERE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THEN RETURN BY MID TO LATE
EVENING DUE TO A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND THAT SOME
RESIDUAL...WET SNOW COVER WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
TERMINAL FORECASTS ALSO INDICATE DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT BOTH LVS AND TCC DUE TO AN INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TYPICALLY I TRY TO HEDGE SUCH EVENTS THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME BUT THE MODELS LOOK PRETTY BULLISH THAT EITHER CIGS OR
VIS...AND EVEN BOTH...WILL BE RESTRICTED LATER TONIGHT AT THOSE
TWO SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.
.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
MODELS ARE PRETTY BULLISH FOR A COLD FRONTAL PUSH...INITIALLY
STARTING AS A BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS...LATER
TONIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PUSH AND IT
APPEARS THAT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS SUCH AS THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES LATER ON WEDNESDAY ARE A STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR FLOWS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PICK UP
A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE AS
WELL AS EASTERN PLAINS AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WETTING PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SNOW EVENT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH
UNDERSTAND THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE
COLD FRONT SO PARTICULARS ARE STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN.
MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY CHILLY
FLOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN BETWEEN 13 TO 23 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY AS ZONAL OR
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRISK AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD TREND DOWN FOR THE MOST PART
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MODELS PREDICTING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
INFILTRATING THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THURSDAY
EVENING. VENTILATION WILL BE MIXED AS MIXING HEIGHTS LOOK TO BE
PRETTY LOW BUT TRANSPORT WINDS COULD BE THE OFFSET WITH HIGHER
READINGS ACROSS SOME AREAS.
IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT HEAVIER CLOUD COVER...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AROUND. THUS...STAY TUNED.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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