FXUS64 KLZK 300951
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CDFNT MOVED OUT OF THE FA ARND MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME LINGERING RAIN 
NOTED OVR SERN AR ATTM. RADAR TRENDS INDC THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WL 
BE OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z...BUT STILL MAY LEAVE SMALL POPS IN FOR A 
FEW HRS THIS MRNG. NWLY WINDS WL CONT TO USHER COLDER AND DRIER AIR 
INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH CLOUDS DCRSG AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE REGION TNGT AND KEEP DRY CONDS IN 
PLACE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUE. THE HIGH CENTER WL SLIDE E OF THE 
AREA LATE TUE. MEANWHILE...AN UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVR THE GULF OF CA 
WL BEGIN WORKING EWD ACRS NRN MX AND ONTO TX TUE NGT AND WED. 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WL RETURN NWD INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW. 
INCRSG WAA PATTERN WL CAUSE RAIN CHCS TO INCRS FM THE S ACRS AR 
GOING INTO WED.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE 
EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THE UPR LOW WED AND WED NGT. GENERAL 
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT IS TO CONT USING A BLEND OF THE MODEL 
SOLUTIONS...TAKING THE UPR SYS ACRS CNTRL OR SRN AR LATE WED AND WED 
NGT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WL BE SHIFTING E 
OF AR EARLY WED NGT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE STORM SYS. 
OPTED TO MENTION A BRIEF MIXTURE OF RN/SN OVR PARTS OF NRN AR WED 
EVENING BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF. WL CONT TO EMPHASIZE THERE WL BE 
NO ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW ON 
THU.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
COLD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN RMNS PROGGED TO CONT THRU THE PD. OPTED 
TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF DURG THIS TIMEFRAME. WL 
SEE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR TROF/ 
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE FA. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS THRU THE 
PD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT AND LONG TERM...44