FXUS63 KICT 100524
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1124 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SURFACE RIDGE IS RIGHT OVER EASTERN KANSAS...SO LIGHT WINDS AND
ESSENTIALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE GOING TO BE THE RULE THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME CIRRUS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
SCHRECK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES FELL QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF THEIR FORECASTED LOWS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SCHRECK
DISCUSSION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL
REMAIN ACROSS KS/OK TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING INTO AR ON THURSDAY.
LIGHT W-NW WINDS TONIGHT...WILL BECOME LIGHT SWRLY ON THURS...WITH
CLEAR SKIES.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLD WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND...AND POTENTIALLY MORE COLD AIR NEXT WEEK.
ANTICIPATING COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON BY FAR TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. COUPLED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK...READINGS
SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO FOR SNOWPACKED AREAS. THINK NAM
BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS SUPERIOR...AND FOR THE MOST PART SIDED
WITH IT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS/LOWS. POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT LOCATIONS SUCH AS GREAT BEND AND RUSSELL FROM
DROPPING OFF COLDER THAN -10F TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHELTERED AREAS
COULD DROP TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 12 OR SO. EVEN THOUGH LOCAL CRITERIA
REQUIRES WINDS OF AT LEAST 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO MINUS
15 TO MINUS 20 DEGREES...SO DECIDED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR
CENTRAL KS THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY...PARTLY DUE TO
SURROUNDING OFFICE COORDINATION. HOWEVER...IT'LL BE COLD
REGARDLESS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS BY FAR
SO FAR THIS YEAR.
RETURN FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
STEADILY EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR
SEVERAL AREAS BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SNOWPACKED AREAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE TEENS-20S FOR HIGHS.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED BY THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO PROGRESS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. NAM BUFFER
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES (LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATIONS) WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE...SO
DECIDED AGAINST INSERTING LOW POPS.
A FEW APPROACHING PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED BY THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOULD APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK-THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY INTO THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS
BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY (COLDER FOR SNOW COVERED AREAS THOUGH). THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DRIZZLE (POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING MAINLY THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS). SIGNAL IS NOT THE STRONGEST AT THIS TIME...SO LEFT
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...COOLER AIR
SHOULD FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. QUESTION IS HOW COLD THINGS
WILL GET. IT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF A
SOUTHERN CANADIAN MID/UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVEN'T
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE
LATEST GFS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OUTLIER THUS FAR...BEING THE
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH AND COLD AIR. GIVEN LATEST
THINKING...MOST PROBABLY OUTCOME IS SOMEWHAT OF A COOL DOWN
EARLY-MID WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND THEREAFTER AS MODELS INCREASE
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING
WESTERN CONUS RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTER
STORMS APPEAR LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 4 29 14 37 / 0 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON -2 23 10 32 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 2 25 12 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 4 29 14 37 / 0 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 7 31 17 38 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELL -10 18 2 24 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND -8 18 4 26 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA -8 18 4 26 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON -2 21 8 30 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 7 31 19 38 / 0 0 10 10
CHANUTE 7 31 16 38 / 0 0 10 10
IOLA 6 31 16 38 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 6 31 18 38 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>050.
&&
$$
