FXUS64 KMOB 282156
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
354 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...UPPER AIR INSITU DATA
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER VORTLOBE MOVING EAST OVER EAST
TEXAS. THICK CIRRUS HAS BEEN SPREADING EAST OVER THE GULF COAST AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. IT WILL AFFECT THE OUTBOUND AND INBOUND RADIATION
BALANCE INDICATING TEMP FORECAST COULD BE A MIND TEASER. SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT BRINGING SOME MODERATION IN DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS WILL
RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. WATER VAPOR CONTENT INCREASES ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL FRONTOLYSIS SETS IN AND THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND STALLS OFFSHORE MONDAY THEN CUTOFF 500 MB LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST. STRATIFORM RAIN WOULD DEVELOP WITH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA AND DEVELOPING INLAND. THAT WOULD
BE EAST OF A LINE FROM MOBILE TO THOMASVILLE MONDAY WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH. HIGH
BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THAT CYCLOGENESIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
JET STREAK SWEEPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY...HENCE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. /77
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NO CHANGES. THE PROBLEM GETS
MORE SHAKY TUESDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF OUTPUTS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. STRONG
ONSHORE WIND AND A HIGH TIDE 1.8 FT AT 8 PM TUESDAY MAY MEAN A RISK
OF COASTAL FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WE WILL NOT KNOW ANY MORE
UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS IN THE MODEL CALCULATIONS ON WIND. AS FOR
RAIN CHANCES THEY ARE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY
DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, SOME POSSIBLY HEAVY ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES FROM TIME TO TIME. WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST IS JOINED WITH
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. GFS FASTER AND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MOBILE BAY. EURO IS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST, NEAR LAKE
CHARLES NOW. WE WOULD FAVOR THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS BUT FURTHER
DELIBERATION INDICATES THEY MAY BE BOTH RIGHT AS TOGETHER THEY MAY
BE REPRESENTING A WARM OCCLUSION WITH THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH INHIBITING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD MONDAY NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS WOULD BE ABLE TO DEFINE THE RISK
MORE CLOSELY. RAIN ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING. /77
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE THIS
EVENING WILL GO MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GOING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY THEN PICK UP
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A BIT MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 7 FEET OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TUESDAY AND TRACKING IT NORTHEAST TOWARDS LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO
SHOW WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN HIGH TIDE IN THE EVENING
HOURS TUESDAY...HAVE OPTED TO MENTION TIDES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...WE MIGHT GET A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES UP TO THE COAST...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THAT IN
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. IF THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS CLOSE TO BEING
CORRECT...WE MAY EVEN HAVE TO EVENTUALLY ENTERTAIN THE IDEA OF A
GALE WARNING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
STAY TUNED. /05
&&
.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE NOTED ON SATELLITE MOVING EAST INTO
MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO
GEORGIA. WE WILL GET A CLEAR SLOT THIS EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...THEN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE (CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA) MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST SUNDAY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND WE SHOULD GET A FEW MORE
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT MVFR PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AIRPORTS BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. /05
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOWEST SURFACE HUMIDITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 50
PERCENT FROM INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA.
ALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE WETTING RAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE IN THE 40S
AND 50S. /77
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 44 70 55 70 / 00 05 10 50
PENSACOLA 47 68 56 73 / 00 05 00 30
DESTIN 48 67 57 72 / 00 05 00 20
EVERGREEN 36 69 48 65 / 00 05 10 40
WAYNESBORO 39 69 51 62 / 00 05 20 50
CAMDEN 39 68 50 62 / 00 05 20 50
CRESTVIEW 33 70 49 73 / 00 05 00 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
