FXUS62 KMHX 082024
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
324 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 304 PM TUE...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE MID TO
LATE EVENING AS PRE WARM FRONTAL LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
EASTERN NC. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. A THREAT FOR ISOLD TSTMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WHERE INSTABLITY (ALBEIT MEAGER) WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. TYPICAL NIGHTTIME LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO SUGGESTS
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO
POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY LIMITS THE THREAT.
THE VERY HIGH GFS QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE COMPROMISED BY FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF APPEAR MORE ON
TARGET FOR TNGT. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN NOT ENUF TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING BUT LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY WHERE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS OCCUR GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WET GROUND CONDITIONS.
NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING
WARM FRONT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED EARLY THEN RISING THRU THE
50S AND INTO THE 60S BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM TUE...WARM AND WINDY SCENARIO FOR TMRW IN THE DEEP
LAYER SW FLOW REGIME. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE (COOLER
NEAR THE COAST) BUT THE RECORD HIGHS FOR EWN (80F) AND HSE (74F)
APPEAR TO BE SAFE. ETA BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 KTS TMRW AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF
MODEL TRENDS HOLD. BAND OF PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND MAY BE
ENUF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE AN ISOLD GUSTY TSTM.
THE BROAD WSW FLOW IS SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK POSTFRONTAL CAA WITH
LOWS WED NIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PCPN ASSOCD WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
AND CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SUPPRESSED
ON THU SO WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM TUE...MUCH COOLER GOING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW
LEVEL CAA/LOWERING THICKNESSES BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM ALONG
WITH AFTN INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
IMPEDES TEMPERATURE RISE ON FRIDAY. A COLD START TO FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F DURING THE AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
ON A WEDGE CONFIGURATION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH
YET MORE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BRINGING THE CHCS FOR COLD RAIN THRU
SAT NIGHT AND OPOSSIBLY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHCS WILL BE INCREASING ON TUES AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES AHEAD NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS...RAIN AND/OR WIND. A WARM
FRONT ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 1500-2000 FT OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH 50+ KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LIFTING FROM AROUND 1500 FT IN THE MORNING TO 10 KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST 15-20 KT IN
THE EVENING TO WEST 5-10 KT BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST
WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE
WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGED FROM CURRENT FORECAST.
USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST THEY HAVE
SHOWN VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTS TO GALE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY
BUT WILL BE MOST FREQUENT IN THE OREGON INLET-OCRACOKE ZONES. WILL
CONTINUE GALE WARNING FOR THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE LEG WITH
SMALL CRAFT ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ADVISORIES WILL END ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA
