FXUS63 KMPX 011206
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 337 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/

DECEMBER BEGINS WITH ONE MORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND THUS MAY
BE BETTER ASSOCIATED WITH NOV THAN THIS UPCOMING STRETCH...AS THE
MONTH FINISHED 2ND WARMEST AT MSP AND 3RD AT EAU AND STC. AFTER
TODAY COMES THE FORECAST CHALLENGE...PLUNGING TEMPS AS A COLD
FRONT AND SECONDARY FRONTS MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN APPRECIABLE PRECIP
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...WITH SNOW IN FAR NRN MN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND A POWERFUL SYSTEM LIFTING UP THE ERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY ON WED INTO THU.

THE GOES WATER VAPOR AND LAST EVES RAOB ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM WEST CTRL CANADA...WITH H5
TEMPS AT -36C IN ALBERTA. FLOW PATTERN WILL TURN THIS SYSTEM
MOVEMENT MORE ERLY TODAY INTO AND ACROSS NRN MN. TO THE SOUTH OVER
OUR AREA...WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ELEVATED WARM SECTOR WITH OFF
AND ON CLOUD COVER BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL REALIZE NEAR
40 NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH...10 TO 17 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PRELIMINARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO WRN MN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WITHIN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR 35 MPH GUSTS IN ELEVATED AREAS OF WEST CTRL MN. THESE
MAY LAST MUCH OF THIS EVE GIVEN THE NAM MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES. A SECONDARY FRONT IS TO DROP DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING BRINGING H8 TEMPS OF -10C TO -13C INTO THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS COOL SEASON. THIS SHOULD FAVOR WIDESPREAD STRATOCU
BY MIDDAY WED WHICH MAY NOT BREAK UNTIL FRI OR SAT. THROUGH THAT
PERIOD...HAVE LEFT GIVEN FORECAST OF OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ALONE. THIS FITS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OFFERING EMBEDDED
PVA MAXS AND COLD POCKETS FOR FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE ARE A BIT MORE FOCUSED DURING THU AND FRI AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW WITH THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT THESE WAVES
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING-WISE. THIS SYSTEM IS LONG-
LASTING IN ITS INFLUENCE DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN
CANADA TRANSLATING LITTLE EAST. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE
FINAL PRONOUNCED WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. CONTINUE TO END PRECIP CHANCES BY FRI NIGHT IN
THE FORECAST. SO ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS THAT OCCUR FROM WED TO FRI WILL
BE MINOR /UNDER 1 IN/ DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND SHOWERY NATURE OF
THE SNOW.

TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. WITH A SLOWER PATTERN AND LASTING CLOUDS...HAVE MINIMIZED THE
TEMPERATURE RANGE EVEN MORE...BRINGING LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES AND
HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. THERE STILL BE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN WRN MN THU AND FRI NIGHTS...POSSIBLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLYING MN FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT OR SAT NIGHT DEPENDING ON
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS...MAINLY IN WRN MN.
THEN INCOMING MVFR CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES TONIGHT IN CENTRAL MN.

MODELS ARE LINED UP PRETTY WELL WITH TIMING OF INCOMING FRONT...
WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS BEFORE FRONT. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND DIRECTIONAL HOOKUP WILL BE BEST IN WRN MN...SO HAVE
WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT AXN AND RWF.
SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT MSP THIS EVENING.

NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH BRINGING IN THE LOW
CLOUDS. NAM HAS DONE A BETTER JOB WITH CURRENT LOW CLOUDS IN NWRN
ND INTO MANITOBA AND HAS DONE BETTER WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES. THUS HAVE BROUGHT MVFR INTO AXN AROUND 01Z AND MSP
AROUND 06Z. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MERIT MENTION OF
FLURRIES TONIGHT AT AXN/STC. MIGHT NEED TO ADD FLURRIES FOR
WEDNESDAY AT OTHER SITES IF THAT PERSISTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$
MTF/TDK