FXUS64 KCRP 250020 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP WIND ADVISORY AREA-WIDE. WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...GALE WARNING CANCELLED FOR THE INNER GULF WATERS. GALE
WARNING CONTINUES FOR OUTER GULF WATERS THROUGH 10 PM CST TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. SFC WIND
WILL STEADILY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. YET...CRITICAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE FOR THE 06-14Z FRIDAY PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. STRONGEST WINDS
REMAIN CONFINED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND WITH GUST AS HIGH
AS 45 TO 50 KNOTS. DO EXPECT WINDS TO BEING TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN BEHIND
THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY DROP. GOING WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...IF WINDS DO NOT RELAX IT MAY BE HARD TO DROP BELOW
CRITERIA FOR TWO OR MORE HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ON TOMORROW AND ALLOWS FOR A NICE CHILLY CHRISTMAS DAY.
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE FAR WEST WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE WINDS NOT CAUSING ANY PROBLEMS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP EARLY FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL LEADING TO A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS
NEAR THE SFC WHILE MOIST SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS JUST ABOVE. NAM AND
ECMWF HAVE STRONGLY COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE
QUICKER RETURN OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT QPF FOR SAT W/
THE ADDITIONAL HELP OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THINK THE INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FREEZING IN THE NRN AREAS FRI
NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL HOLD
HIGHS DOWN ON SAT. WILL SHOW A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MET AND MAV POPS
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ON SAT...BUT LEAN A BIT TOWARD THE LOW MET IN
WRN AND NRN AREAS. THE DISTURBANCE MVG EAST WILL CAUSE THE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO SHUT OFF SAT NIGHT AND WILL ALSO BRING A
MODEST HIGH PRESSURE SURGE FROM THE NORTH. THIS MAY ALLOW ONE NICE
DAY WITH SOME SUN BEFORE THINGS START GOING DOWN HILL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
WELL...ENHANCING THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ABOVE THE COOL AIRMASS NEAR THE SFC IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
MVG INTO THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL INITIALLY LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY ...BUT INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
COMBINED W/ MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOC W/ THE TROUGH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON
NIGHT AND ESP TUE. THIS WILL BE A COLD RAIN TUES W/ HIGHS LIKELY
WELL BELOW GFS MOS IF THIS FORECAST PANS OUT. RAINFALL WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUE NIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO END
AS INDICATED BY ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER SOLN IS PREFERRED WRT THE UPR
TROUGH. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AS THE
FIRST TROUGH PASSES...HOWEVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AS IT MOVES AWAY AS BROAD TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CEN PART
OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS MOS KEEPS CHC POPS GOING THROUGH THU BUT NEITHER GFS OR
ECMWF PROGS SUPPORT THIS ATTM AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY
FOR NOW.
MARINE...VERY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING ABOVE 40 KNOTS WITH SOME
REACHING 50 KNOTS. ALSO...SEAS ARE RUNNING 12 FT AT BUOY 20. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE CRITERIA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS RELAX FURTHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 57 42 53 44 / 0 0 10 50 20
VICTORIA 30 55 34 49 38 / 0 0 10 30 20
LAREDO 37 61 42 57 45 / 0 0 10 10 10
ALICE 32 58 39 52 42 / 0 0 10 30 10
ROCKPORT 37 54 41 53 43 / 0 0 10 60 20
COTULLA 29 58 34 55 38 / 0 0 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 32 57 41 53 42 / 0 0 10 40 10
NAVY CORPUS 38 55 46 58 47 / 0 0 10 60 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...
VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O'CONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
JAR/19...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM/AVIATION
