FXAK67 PAJK 301434
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
534 AM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THE RIDGE IS PUSHING A WEAK LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN YUKON FARTHER
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW DISSIPATING NORTH OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS. UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGE ANA REA OF MARINE STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OUTSIDE WATERS TOWARDS DIXON ENTRANCE. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH DECREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SKAGWAY AREA.  

 MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. OPTED TO
BLEND THE INHERITED GRIDS WITH THE NAM AND GFS THROUGH TONIGHT.  

 AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW
SOUTHWESTERN YUKON WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER NORTHEAST...NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...EXCEPT CROSS SOUND WHERE SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASES
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL PUSH A STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND NORTHEASTERN GULF.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME TIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT GALE FORCE
WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS THE
REST OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS. 

 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -6C TO -8C ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. THE INCOMING FRONT WILL GENERATE A HEALTHY BAROCLINIC
LEAF ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH A
WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL EXTEND AN OCCLUSION TO THE YAKUTAT AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. POPS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE COAST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A CHANCE POP OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE.  

&&

.LONG TERM...FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
THAT A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF LATE
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES EARLY THIS WEEK THAT RESULT IN ONLY A LITTLE
CHANGE TO FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF FOR TODAY'S
GRIDS.

EXPECT A 985 MB LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MODERATELY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY THAT LIFTS N AND NW AND MOVES
ONSHORE KENIA PENN TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOLID GALES AS WAVE MOVES
THROUGH NE GULF TUESDAY. RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SHOULD SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE GULF ON FRIDAY AND
SETS UP ALONG 140W SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO 1050'S
ACROSS SOUTHERN YUKON BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRY OUT PANHANDLE THIS
WEEKEND. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD WITH
HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES BUT DO EXPECT A SOLID SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL LIKELY HAVE GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES
THROUGH INNER CHANNELS AND NEAR INTERIOR PASSES.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051-052. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-042-043. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041. 

&&

$$

AHN/MM