FXUS64 KHGX 010611 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1140 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS...SE TX WILL STAY MAINLY DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TOWARD MORNING
EXPECT THE RAIN AREA CURRENTLY ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AND OVER S
TX TO SPREAD INLAND AND NORTHWARD. BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOCATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. THIS SCENARIO FITS
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. 

WILL UPDATE THE COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION LATER TONIGHT.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WITH JUST MID TO HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP BY 
LATE MORNING BEGINNING AT THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND. EXPECT IFR 
CEILINGS AT KGLS/KLBX...AND MVFR CEILINGS AT THE HOUSTON AREA 
TERMINALS AND POINTS NORTH BY 16-18Z TUESDAY. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL 
BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS BY SUNRISE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST 
OF THE TERMINALS 15-18Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND 
THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. 
CEILINGS FOR HOUSTON AREA TERMINALS SHOULD DROP TO THE IFR LEVEL 
AFTER 01Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODERATE RAIN TUE EVENING WILL REDUCE 
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2-4SM. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KTS INLAND WILL 
BACK TO THE NORTH TUE AFTN. WINDS OF 15-20 KTS EXPECTED AT KGLS.  35

&&

.MARINE...
PORTS DATA SHOWS THAT THE TIDE LEVELS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING THE 
UPTICK...THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING AT NORMAL LEVELS UP UNTIL NOW. 
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL INDICATES THAT LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 
FREEPORT AND PLEASURE PIER AT 3.4-3.8 FT DURING THE TIME OF HIGH 
TIDE TUESDAY AFTN. THE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SHORT LIVED 
(PROBABLY LASTING 4 HRS AT MOST) AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE 
NORTH PUSHING LEVELS DOWN TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THESE 
CONSIDERATIONS WILL KEEP WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY BUT SHIFT THE 
TIME FRAME LATER (15Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY). HAVE LOWERED THE 
SCA FOR THE BAYS TO A SCEC AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 
15-20 KT RANGE. WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS AS IS.  

35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/ 

AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS DECK PERSISTS OVER KSGR/KLBX/KGLS THIS HOUR. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BREAK UP BY 04Z WITH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH JUST A GRADUAL
THICKENING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
QUICKLY TO MVFR LEVEL FIRST AT KGLS/KLBX AROUND 09Z...HOUSTON AREA
TERMINALS AROUND 15Z...AND NORTHERN TERMINALS 16-18Z. WILL SEE
CEILINGS CRATER TO IFR LEVEL NEAR THE COAST BEFORE 18Z AND HOUSTON
AREA TERMINALS AROUND 21Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
COAST BEFORE SUNRISE THEN SPREAD INLAND TO COVER ALL THE TERMINALS
BY MIDDAY. THE RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER IN THE LATE AFTN. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO 3-5SM LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE
RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS INLAND...15-20
KTS COAST LATE TONIGHT...VEERING TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTN. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      45  49  42  54  35 /  30  80  90  30  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              47  50  43  55  37 /  30  80  90  20  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  55  47  58  44 /  50  80  90  20  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT 
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM 
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS 
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH 
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...35