FXUS61 KCLE 260451
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1151 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL
PUSH OFF THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLY THINKING FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE LET THE
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AS SURFACE WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE CORE OF THE STRONG SELY 850 MB WINDS
NEAR 70 KNOTS HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY OVER NW PA.
ONLY A FACTION OF THIS WIND IS MIXING TO THE SURFACE AND SHOULD
DIMINISH FURTHER AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO RACE NORTH IN
THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT. THE BANDS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST AND
SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. COLDER
AIR WILL CHANGE THE PCPN TO SNOW GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LOWS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S
NEAR ERI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS BUILDING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING SO CUT BACK ON POPS WITH ONLY A MENTION OF SLGT CHC FOR
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS BOTH FAR WESTERN AREAS AS WELL AS
NW PA. THIS LOOKS TO BE A LULL PERIOD IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA...THEN AS LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LOW BEGIN PROGRESSING
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FROM LAKE
EFFECT BEHIND UPPER LOW WHEN SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE. SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP FOR EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE
THE SNOWBELT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THEN
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
COLDEST TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS MOVE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPS RECOVERING A BIT ON TUESDAY BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE 
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY QUICKLY ON 
WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW.  WILL BRING CLOUDS AND 
SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE 
BUILDS AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE...ALSO ACROSS THE AREA...BREAKS DOWN.  
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
THURSDAY MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST 
TO OUR WEST WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT OF CANADIAN OR MODIFIED 
ARCTIC ORIGIN TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN LAKES.  THIS COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION 
CONTINUING FRIDAY.  WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE 
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW 
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN AND FLOW OFF THE 
LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH YNG BY 06Z AND ERI BY 07Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
WILL OCCUR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS. THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS
DOESN'T SEEM THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME...SOME FLURRIES COULD SNEAK
INTO EXTREME WESTERN OHIO BY DAYBREAK. A DRY SLOT WILL BE
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUES
BUT BE VFR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF OHIO AND NW PA. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE FROM THE WEST EITHER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
TO MVFR WITH FLURRIES OR SLIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN THAT WILL
SPREAD EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO VEER ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH HALF OF 
THE LAKE. DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND 
GUSTY ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EASTWARD UNTIL 
THE OCCLUDED FRONT SLIDES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE 
SOUTHERLY AFTER THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO 
WEAKEN. THE GRADIENT IS NOT AS STRONG ON SATURDAY AND THERE WILL BE 
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE WIND. THE GRADIENT WILL PICK BACK UP ON 
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AND THEN MONDAY WITH A 
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST TO 
WEST WINDS WILL PUSH 30 KNOTS EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT MAY STAY JUST 
BELOW GALE FORCE. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FROM THE 
NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK