FXUS62 KTAE 260142
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
842 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...01 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST NOW 
PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS 
CAUSING OUR WINDS TO BACK TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS FRONT 
IS ALSO DELIVERING A SLIGHTLY DRIER SHOT OF AIR TO THE REGION. A 
SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER. IT IS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE 
OF A VERY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY 
NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. 

VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB DATA FROM 00 UTC SHOW THE LAST VORT MAX 
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THIS IS TAKING THE MID 
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH IT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LOW IS 
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE 
OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR FRIDAY 
MORNING. 

WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO THE 
EAST...CLEARING SKIES ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION. DUE TO THE WEAK 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT...WINDS WILL LIKELY 
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF 
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. IT WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY 
FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING THAT WILL INCREASE OUR WINDS AS A SURFACE 
HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. BY SATURDAY 
MORNING...THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND PARK ITSELF 
RIGHT OVER OUR REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES DROPPING 
OFF INTO THE CHILLY MID 30S BY THEN...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE INDICATED 
FAVORABLE SURFACE HIGH POSITION. 

CURRENT FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED 
TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST. HAVE A 
GREAT NIGHT! 

&&

.MARINE...AS FORECAST BY THE DAY SHIFT...WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 
HEADLINE CRITERIA AND BASED ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE MID 
SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING A HEADLINE AS WINDS WILL 
NEAR CAUTIONARY CRITERIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY REACH ADVISORY 
LEVEL BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS SHOULD BE A MUCH EASIER AND MORE CLEAR CUT TAF 
PACKAGE TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT...AS THE REMNANTS OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ALL OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS 
THAT WAS COMPLICATING THE FCST BY OBSCURING THE EMBEDDED LOWER LEVEL 
(MVFR) CLOUDS IS FINALLY EJECTING OFF TO THE N-NE. BKN HIGH CLOUDS 
STILL REMAIN AT TLH AND VLD AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...BUT 
SHOULD ONLY BE AT TLH FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AND WILL EITHER BE 
GONE OR SCT OUT BY MIDNIGHT AT VLD. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL 
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND 
UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT 
SFC WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE N-NW AT TIMES DURING THE DAY 
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 18-22Z THU FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT         
     LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 18-23Z FRI FOR ALL ZONES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GOULD
REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY