FXUS64 KLZK 262004
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
203 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS ALL AGREE IN QUIET...ALBEIT COOL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL BLEND THE NAM/GFS MODELS IN
THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD...
SOMEWHERE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE ECMWF REMAINS FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TO THE SOUTH WITH ITS SOLUTION. NAM REMAINS
THE SLOW OUTLIER AND IS GENERALLY DISREGARDED. ECMWF HAS OUT
PERFORMED THE GFS IN THIS TIME FRAME FOR A QUITE A WHILE NOW AND SEE
NO METEOROLOGICAL REASON TO CHANGE THINKING MIDSTREAM AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY IN ITS DIRECTION.
INTENSE WINTER STORM EASY TO PICK OUT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE IOWA AND
ILLINOIS BORDER. SEVERAL VORT LOBES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PARENT LOW AND WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PART OF THE
STATE. STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH FOR TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER
SUNDAY THAN WHAT WAS SEEN SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. MET GUIDANCE ARE RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER VERSUS THE MAV
NUMBERS BUT HAS BEEN PERFORMING BETTER. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MET
NUMBERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND TREND TOWARDS THE MAV/MEX LATER ON.
UPPER MID WEST STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALSO VISIBLE ON MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND THE HIGH MOVING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA.
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH SPINS UP A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
NOTED EARLIER IN THE DISCUSSION. IN ADDITION...GFS IS MUCH WETTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS DO GENERATE LIGHT OVERRRUNING BUT ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS JUSTIFIED IN THE SHORT TERM.
THERMAL PROFILES/BUFKIT DATA INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW POSSIBLE BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT REGARDLESS.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A WEAK SYSTEM ALOFT WILL RIDE THE SUBTROPICAL JET FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES.
DATA SHOWS SOME MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT NOTHING
HEAVY/ESCESSIVE. MOISTURE WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.
IT APPEARS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. LIGHT
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES
AND MAINLY RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.
THE POLAR JET WILL THEN BECOME DOMINANT...AND WILL DRIVE AN
ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH/EAST...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEW YEAR WILL
START OFF ON A VERY COLD NOTE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 25 37 24 41 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 29 46 27 46 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 22 33 20 39 / 10 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 27 44 25 44 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 28 44 25 44 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 30 46 28 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 27 44 24 43 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 22 33 21 40 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 26 39 25 42 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 29 45 27 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 25 40 23 41 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 27 41 25 43 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 29 44 27 44 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...46
