FXUS62 KCAE 271414 AAA
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
914 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING WET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...WINDS WERE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THE SURFACE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER TODAY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. DECIDED TO EXTEND LAKE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE AFTERNOON
TO INDICATE INCREASING WIND LATER TODAY. THOUGH MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINAL WIND FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY
TODAY...EARLY MORNING ACARS SOUNDING AT CAE...AS WELL AS 12Z NWS
RAOBS AT CHS AND FFC INDICATED 30 KNOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND.
LAKE MURRAY WATER TEMP IN THE LOWER 60S...MAY ALLOW FOR ENHANCED
MIXING OVER AREA LAKES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...CLEAR SKIES FORECAST...AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER ONES WE HAVE SEEN FOR A
WHILE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 31
TO 34 DEGREES. WITH THE DRY AIR...HAVE UNDERCUT THOSE NUMBERS
SLIGHTLY...WHICH GIVES READINGS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR
MOST AREAS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. THIS COULD FINALLY END THE GROWING SEASON.
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGIN MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH. SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE REGION FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL REMAIN JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE NEXT RAINMAKER BEGINS SPREADING MOISTURE AND PRECIP
OVER THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MOISTURE OUR WAY ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE SYSTEM
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20
TO 25 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE (MAINLY A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION) AFTER SUNSET. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE.
KCUB HAD A VISIBILITY SENSOR FAILURE EARLIER BUT TECHNICIANS WILL
BE LOOKING INTO GETTING THAT BACK OPERATIONAL TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
BY LATE MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-
016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
