FXUS63 KGID 021102
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
502 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE
THE WINDS...WHICH COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AT 25KTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT
NOTHING OTHER THAN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH AFFECTED THE CWA THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH...IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SET UP
PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...AND THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NOTE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF 
THE WORK WEEK.  MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO LIE WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIR 
BUILDING INTO THE REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO 
A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS AS THE 
NORTH/SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS PHASE TOGETHER.  

TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE...AS THE CWA SITS 
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW TO THE SE AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD 
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BRINGING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.  
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHERLY...BUT WILL SEE SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. AFTER SEEING
HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...AND WITH
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER.

AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...KEPT FLURRY MENTION IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PIECE 
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  COLDER AIR 
CONTINUES TO SPILL IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROX -10 
TO -12C AT 12Z THURSDAY.  ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...MODEL 
SOUNDINGS SHOW RH VALUES INCREASING ENOUGH IN THE DEND LAYER THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIP. CONTINUED TO KEEP AS
FLURRIES THOUGH WITH THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS DOWN TO THE SFC. EXPECTING THURSDAY
TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH THE COMBO OF
COLDER AIR AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...THINK THAT MANY LOCATIONS
/ESP IN THE NEB COUNTIES/ WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID
20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO SEE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT. THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS /AND THE COLDEST AIR/ SLIDES JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FOR
SATURDAY. WHILE HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S...SATURDAY IS A TOUCH WARMER...REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
WITH A FEW LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN NC KS. FORECAST REMAINS DRY...AS
BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL NE OF THE CWA.

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOST NOTABLE BEING A 
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN HIGHS AND INSERTING SLIGHT POPS.  WHILE 
CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT ISNT THE GREATEST...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF 
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH 
THE AREA...WITH THE TIMING BRINGING IT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAYTIME/EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THIS SYSTEM COMES
ANOTHER SFC COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER...AND
DROPPED HIGHS FOR SUN/MONDAY BACK INTO THE MID 20S NORTH/LOWER 30S
SOUTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$