FXUS64 KBMX 262328
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
527 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

GOOD COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
HAVE BEEN CLEAR ALL DAY BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY MANAGED THE 50S
MOST LOCATIONS WITH WINDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD LESSEN OVERNIGHT BUT NEVER CALM AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT MAXIMUM COOLING POTENTIAL WITH LOWS FALLING OFF TO
NUMBERS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE VERY PLEASANT DAYS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND 60S SATURDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE. COOL
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 30S. NOT QUITE AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND MODIFYING AIRMASS YIELDING LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE NEXT RAIN MAKER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE WEST OF ALABAMA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO ALABAMA ON MONDAY. EXCELLENT MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST
AND THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST. THUS THE AREA SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF ANY PRECIPITATION BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. GENERALLY ACCEPTED
MEX POP/TEMP NUMBERS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST QUICKLY BECOMES MESSY AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW, THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY CUT OFF OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO,
BEGINS A QUICK TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS. RAIN
SPREADS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF
AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO, MAINLY WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING BY THURSDAY. WITH ALL OF THE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK AND USED A BLEND OF HPC/MEX/MEN. LOWS SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL...ROUGHLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AT ALL LEVELS...AND SKIES 
WILL STAY CLEAR AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WINDS 
WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT (3 TO 5 KNOTS ON AVERAGE)...AND THEN 
PICK BACK UP AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY (8 TO 12 KNOTS). 

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$