FXUS63 KGLD 281118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
418 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
231 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2009

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE VERY LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...HOW COOL TO GO ON MAXES TODAY AND
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW MUCH OF A WARMUP ON MONDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AMPLIFICATION TO THIS FLOW IS OCCURRING
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
SPECIFICALLY...WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER TROUGH IS SPLITTING INTO
A CLOSED OFF SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION WHILE THE WEAKER AND
MORE OPEN PORTION RESIDES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE ON THE STRONG WEST
TO EAST JET OVER THE PACIFIC. OTHERWISE...MODELS LOOKED FINE ON THE
JET ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. AT MID LEVELS...SATELLITE
WOULD INDICATE THE MODELS ARE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC. OTHERWISE...MODELS DID FINE BASED ON SATELLITE. HOWEVER...
THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MODELS HAD THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE INCOMING TROUGH TOO FAR EAST. HERE THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
HANDLING IT BEST.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE NAM/ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE WIND/PRESSURE
FIELD THROUGH 06Z. THE MAIN AREA WHERE THEY WERE DOING BEST WAS HOW
THEY WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF
WAS ALSO DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS ON THE
TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS...NAM AND
ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST.

TODAY...A SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOT TOO FAR. HOWEVER...IT IS MOVING MORE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. MODELS WOULD INDICATE THAT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WOULD
INDICATE THAT MODELS MAY BE A TAD WARM TO START. TIMING OF CLOUDS
AND FRONT WOULD INDICATE GOING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF. ALL MODELS HAVE A PRETTY TIGHT
GRADIENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO RAISED WINDS UP TO NEAR OR LOW END
BREEZY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM DIGGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GO TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IN THIS SPLIT FLOW...
TO MAINLY AFFECT THE AREA. THIS OPEN/WEAKER NORTHERN PORTION ACTUALLY
STARTS MOVING THROUGH AT 700 MB LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EVEN AT MID LEVELS. WHEN THE BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
HERE...THE SYNOPTIC AND SMALL SCALE LIFT IS NOT THAT GOOD AND THE
BEST LIFT FROM THAT IS LOCATED FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE.

THETA-E LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE A POOR RESPONSE TO WHATEVER LIFT
THERE IS. ALSO ONLY WEAK UPSLOPE IS IN PLACE. FOR THE PRECIPITATION
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WILL PULL THE HIGHEST CHANCES
TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES AND
LEAVE FLURRIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THERE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS DONE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z WITH MAYBE THE FAR WEST HAVING SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING THE EXCEPTION.

MODELS LOOK SLOW IN GETTING RID OF THE CLOUDS. SO WILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE IN THIS SPLIT FLOW AND WOULD NOT
EXPECT VERY MUCH. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY WARMER. THE SREF IS THE COLDEST
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF. MAV/GFS LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO COOL WITH THE NAM/MET A LITTLE WARM. USING THE 850 BIAS TENDED
TO SUPPORT GOING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTREMES. NORTH WINDS BECOME
LIGHT WEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY AFTERNOON. PER REASONING ABOVE...
WILL DO A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE WILL TEND TO GO CLOSER TO THE
WARMER GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER.

WILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
SO EXPECT MINS TO DROP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE DAY BUT SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WILL HAVE LIGHT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS CLUSTERING TOWARD
GOING ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. THE 850 MB BIAS WOULD SUPPORT
GOING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SIMILAR. THE 2 METER IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER. THE SREF ALSO
TRENDS COOLER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THAT GREAT. WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WAS INITIALLY NOT GOING TO TOUCH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD DUE TO MODELS DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE RAISED MAXES ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE FROPA UNTIL AFTER MAX HEATING TIME ON TUESDAY? SO WILL
LEAVE THE TUESDAY MAXES ALONE. SURFACE RIDGING AND NORTH WINDS
IN PLACE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL RAISE MAXES A
FEW DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WITH MY NEIGHBORS BUT AM VERY UNEASY
ABOUT DOING THAT.

THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
414 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2009

FOR THE 12Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EFFECTIVE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. SCT CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 25K FT.
AS WEAK DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION TONIGHT...CIGS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 15K FT BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25KTS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. 

FOLTZ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$