FXUS62 KTAE 100047
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
745 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN
CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED RESIDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH. VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALOFT OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND WILL BE
SHEARING EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREAS WEDNESDAY IS COMING TO A STALL. LATEST FRONTAL POSITION IS
FRONT SOUTHEASTERN GA BACK THROUGH THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND OUT INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AS THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
GFS/NAM/RUC ALL SHOWING DECENT SWATH OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG HE
300-310K SURFACES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THIS LIFT IS ALREADY
EVIDENT WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OFF THE PANHANDLE COAST AND HEADING BACK TOWARD SHORE.
THIS UPGLIDE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE PROFILES OCCURRING IN A
BAND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DESTIN TO DOTHAN
AND ALBANY. THIS LOWER LEVEL LIFT WILL HAVE A BIT OF SYNOPTIC HELP
FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HAVE RAIDED POPS
TO LIKELY IN THIS ZONE FROM LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT RATHER
WIDESPREAD LIGHTER SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UNDER ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT TONIGHT'S LOWS AS MAY BE
CURRENTLY A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE REGION.
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT TO BEGIN
MOVING SOUTHWARD AGAIN AND SHOULD BRING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO AN
END BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHEAST BIG
BEND SEEING THE SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST. GOING TO FEEL QUITE
DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY WITH COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
HOLDING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
FAIR...DRY...AND COOL WEATHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THIS STRETCH OF FAIR WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER...WITH THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGING
RAIN BACK TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OVERNIGHT AND
THEN BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER
MAY SEE THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KVLD...KTLH...
AND KPFN. AS VIS AND CIGS IMPROVE...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS. VFR
CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 48 55 35 56 43 / 60 40 10 10 40
PANAMA CITY 47 56 39 56 46 / 60 20 10 20 40
DOTHAN 42 54 31 51 39 / 40 10 0 10 40
ALBANY 44 54 31 51 37 / 50 10 0 10 30
VALDOSTA 48 54 33 56 40 / 70 50 10 10 40
CROSS CITY 56 56 37 58 48 / 70 50 10 20 40
APALACHICOLA 49 55 39 56 49 / 60 40 10 20 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...
JACKSON...WASHINGTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...FOURNIER
