FXUS62 KTAE 270649
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
150 AM EST FRI NOV 26 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY....THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
GRADUALLY FLATTENING TO BECOME ZONAL BY SUNDAY. DEEP DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW TODAY WILL BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS WILL BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST TODAY. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CENTER OVER OUR CWA BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANY THIS AIR MASS AND
WE EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S AWAY FROM
COASTAL AREAS. A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY
DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK AND AREAS OF FROST ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE
ONLY CONCERN IS THAT WE CAN SEE A THICK CANOPY OF CIRRUS UPSTREAM
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. GFS TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THE CIRRUS OVERSPREADING OUR FA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY FOIL IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST AND
MAY HINDER OR LIMIT THE EXTEND OF FROST DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE FROST IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES FOR TONIGHT BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST WITH ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING POSSIBLE OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO LAGGING BEHIND THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF EJECTS EASTWARD.
WHILE THE EURO AND GFS HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA...TIMING IS QUITE
DIFFERENT WITH THE 27/00Z GFS ABOUT 12-18 HOURS FASTER WITH THE LOW
THAN THE 26/12Z ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...EXPECT TO SEE A
BOUT OF HEAVY RAIN AT SOME POINT FROM EARLY TUESDAY TO LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BROAD BRUSH THE POPS IN THE GRIDS. GUIDANCE HAS
NOT YET SETTLED ON THE TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW. LATEST ROUND
OF GUIDANCE TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH COULD
PUT THE BIG BEND BRIEFLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR. IF THIS WERE THE
CASE...DYNAMICS WOULD BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT SEVERE
WEATHER...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE ADVISORY
EXPIRE A FEW HOURS EARLY AND REPLACE WITH SCEC HEADLINE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY WILL ALLOW RH TO DROP
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR AROUND 4 HOURS FOR ALL INLAND AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA ZONES...SO WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH DURATIONS RIGHT AROUND 4
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE WATCH UP FOR ALL BUT GULF AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 62 34 63 34 70/ 00 00 00 00 00
PANAMA CITY 61 41 66 46 71/ 00 00 00 00 00
DOTHAN 60 36 63 42 70/ 00 00 00 00 00
ALBANY 61 34 64 38 70/ 00 00 00 00 00
VALDOSTA 60 35 64 36 71/ 00 00 00 00 00
CROSS CITY 62 34 63 34 74/ 00 00 00 00 00
APALACHICOLA 61 38 63 40 69/ 00 00 00 00 00
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING 18-23Z TODAY ALL ZONES.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALL BUT GULF AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BARRY/CAMP
