FXUS61 KILN 280544
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1244 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL CONTROL 
THE REGIONS WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO 
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING THE NIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AND 
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTING EAST AS LARGE RIDGE BEGINS TO 
BUILD EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION. SFC RIDGE IS BUILDING
IN THIS EVENING. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM CYCLONIC TO
ANTI-CYCLONIC EXPECT CLDS TO CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE TRENDED OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SINCE WE ARE ALREADY NEAR FORECAST
LOWS...DECREASED LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN AMPLIFIED SPLIT LEVEL FLOW PATTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HAVE TRENDED SATURDAYS HIGHS CLOSER
TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS.

THE FLOW BACKS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED SAT NIGHTS LOWS A LTL COOLER THAN GUID BASED
ON EXPECTED SLOWER ONSET OF CLDS.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLN/S A LTL SLOWER AND THEREFORE HAVE
SPREAD CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS INTO THE NW SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. HAVE ENDED POPS FROM THE NW
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT. 

HAVE TRENDED SUNDAYS HIGHS A LTL BELOW GUID DUE TO CLDS AND PRECIP
AND SLIGHT ABOVE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONFLUENCE OVER THE REGION 
RESULTING IN SFC RIDGING. THIS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER 
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 

SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO EJECT FROM THE GULF STATES NE INTO THE OHIO VLY 
AND MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS A BROAD TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST GFS SOLN KEEPS THIS SYSTEM FAR TO OUR EAST 
WHILE THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES BRING IT INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY. WL FOLLOW THESE SOLN/S SPREADING CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS 
FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTN. WL CONT CHC POPS INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU. 

WITH BROAD TROF UPR LEVEL ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE TN VLY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE 
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY CMH CURRENTLY UNDER MVVF CIGS...JUST AROUND FOR AN HOUR. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TO KEEP NEARLY CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO SSW AS HIGH PULLS EAST SATURDAY. WITH
CALM WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 09-12Z AT
CVG/LUK. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BEHIND HIGH...WINDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS AFTER 12Z. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JDR