FXUS63 KEAX 151121
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
521 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
/403 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
OTHER THAN BEING FRIGID TODAY SENSIBLE WEATHER PRETTY BENIGN THROUGH
THURSDAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WANDER ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND KEEP ITS ICY GRIP ON US. USED A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS FOR
MAX TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW ON BACK
SIDE OF RETREATING SURFACE HIGH HALTS MOST OF THE TEMPERATURE DROP
BY MIDNIGHT...FAR EASTERN CWA MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL ALL NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER OVER NM TRACKING EAST WILL HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY
SHOWING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS VIA PATCHY MID CLOUDS FORMING.
NAM/MAV MOS LOOK REASONABLE TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT. HAVE SOME CONCERN NOT ENOUGH CLOUD COVER BUILT INTO
THE FORECAST BUT HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE CLOUDS. SHOULD CLOUD COVER
BECOME MORE DENSE IT WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT MAX TEMPERATURES.
NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL WAIT TILL FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS TAKE A
CHUNK OF ENERGY CURRENTLY BETWEEN 140-150W AND DIG IT SE ONCE IT
REACHES THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ON
FRIDAY THAT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW.
MJ
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE
A PATCH OF FEW-SCT MID-LVL CLOUDS LATER TODAY AS WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER NO IMPACT TO AVIATION
EXPECTED. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DUX
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
