FXUS61 KOKX 151459
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...DRAGGING A SURFACE FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY WORKWEEK...HOWEVER DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THOROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WINDS
MORE OR LESS BRIDGING ACROSS THE WEAK FRONT. PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFT WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING W/NW WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THE
/WARMEST/ OF THE WEEK...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NEAR 50.
FOR TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. DECENT CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY COULD
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT WILL MOVE INTO PLACE...HOWEVER THEY
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR INLAND AREAS...AND TO NEAR
FREEZING FOR COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETS UP TEMPORARY RESIDENCE OFF THE TIP OF MAINE. MODELS
STILL NOT HANDLING THIS SET UP WELL....HOWEVER THEY ARE IN ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT ONE CAN GET A GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER THIS REGIME AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 OR 40 MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT A
DOWNWARD TREND IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS THE FOCUS...SO NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME.
AS THIS LOW SITS AND SPINS...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY WITH VARYING RESULTS DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION YOU BUY INTO. THE BIGGEST /CONCERN/ WILL BE THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM THAT COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND TRAVEL NEAR THE NOTORIOUS 70W/40N BENCHMARK.
AGAIN...MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS DIFFERENTLY...SO WILL NOT GO INTO A
LOT OF DETAIL AT THIS TIME...AND WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION AS TIME DRAWS NEARER.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT REAL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...WITH
WESTERLY WINDS MORE OR LESS BRIDGING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. WEST
WIND AROUND 10 KT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
VEERING AROUND TO 300-310 BY 21Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. MORE
IMPORTANTLY THOUGH...A LOWERING FRONTAL INVERSION THIS MORNING
WILL ALLOW IFR/MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST TIL 19Z ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. THIS HAS DELAYED THE INITIAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ABOVE 2
KFT BY 3 TO 4 HOURS.
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (310-320 G25KT). THERE MAY BE A
FEW FLURRIES AND VFR CIGS AROUND 4 KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF STRONG UPPER JET AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...WINDS HAVE EQUAL CHANCES TO BE LEFT OR RIGHT OF 310
DEGREES AFTER 21Z.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
15/12Z 24006KT
15/13Z 24007KT
15/14Z 25007KT
15/15Z 26009KT
15/16Z 27009KT
15/17Z 28010KT
15/18Z 29011G18KT
15/19Z 29012G18KT
15/20Z 30012G20KT
15/21Z 30012G20KT
15/22Z 30013G23KT
15/23Z 31013G23KT
KJFK...WINDS HAVE EQUAL CHANCES TO BE LEFT OR RIGHT OF 310
DEGREES AFTER 21Z.
KLGA...WINDS HAVE EQUAL CHANCES TO BE LEFT OR RIGHT OF 310
DEGREES AFTER 21Z.
KTEB...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KHPN...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KISP...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KBDR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KGON...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
OUTLOOK 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
FRI...VFR.
SAT...VFR EXPECTED BUT NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL CSTL
STORM.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR TODAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELLS HAVE RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DID NOT CAPTURE THIS AND HAVE ADDED A FOOT OR SO
TO THE GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LATE IN THE DAY SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY ALSO REACH SMALL CRAFT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES...WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE WATER AND WILL
LIKELY GUST RIGHT AROUND GALE FORCE ON ALL THE AREA WATERS...SO HAVE
POSTED A GALE WARNING STARTING TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW GALE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER STRONG BOUT OF COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL AGAIN ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO GALE FORCE
ONCE AGAIN. FOR NOW HAVE THE GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THE GALE GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY.
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
TRANQUIL FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION...GALES ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
AVIATION...DW
