FXUS62 KCAE 100344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1044 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
MORE RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AT 03Z. WINDS STAYING UP A
BIT. TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO ADJUSTED UP
IN THE SHORT TERM. COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BASED OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON LATEST LAMP. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INCREASED SKY COVER
A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
THURSDAY BUILDS EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY. DRY AIR MASS WILL MAKE
FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT WIND AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATING
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST AND RE-DEVELOPS
OFF THE SC COAST SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET AND COOL WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. WITH THE DELAY OF MOISTURE
UNTIL SATURDAY...ANY CHANCE FOR SLEET APPEARS VERY SMALL.
GFS/ECMWF NOT YET IN AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOTH INDICATING
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS FASTER IN TAKING THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. WILL INCLUDE
CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA). STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER OUR FA THIS EVENING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM THAT SURFACE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...BUT WILL EXPECT HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND WILL PUT IN WS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS DRY LOW TO
MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...22
