FXUS61 KCLE 100458
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1158 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR GEORGIAN BAY WILL CROSS QUEBEC THURSDAY AND
OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CANCELED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A WHILE
YET TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT THE TREND OF
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS
NORTHEAST AND THE BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT NORTHEAST.

WRAP AROUND SNOW WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TOO MUCH.
WITH THE WIND AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS...SNOW WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO STICK. SOME AREAS WILL GET A COATING. 

HAVE NOT HAD A CHANCE TO STUDY MUCH OF THE NEW MODEL DATA YET. AS
USUAL... THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION WILL DETERMINE WHO WILL GET THE 
MAJORITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A LITTLE TOO WINDY OUT THERE
NOW. 

MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST BRINGING THE SNOW BANDS ONSHORE...
AND IT OFTEN TAKES THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TO SHIFT THE WIND AND
DIRECT THE BANDS ONSHORE. I SUSPECT THIS WILL HAPPEN THURSDAY
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE THE TIMING OF ANY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES/WARNINGS. AS THE WIND SLOWS...THE
BANDS SHOULD GET MORE ORGANIZED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AND EVEN A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE
GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEFT SEVERAL COUNTIES IN A WATCH.
WHEN THE WINDS FINALLY SETTLE LATE TOMORROW WE SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER IDEA IF THE WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED OR IF ADVISORIES
WILL WORK BETTER. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT WILL ARRIVE ALOFT
TOMORROW NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TEMP DIFFERENCE FROM THE
LAKE TO 500 MB TO GET SOME THUNDER AND SQUALLS. THIS IS A CLASSIC
SET UP AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET FEET OF SNOW BY THE TIME THIS
EVENT WINDS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SW HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL BEGIN LATE THURSDAY IN
THE WEST AND SOME SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS THURSDAY. PLACES LIKE KMFD
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH 20 FOR A HIGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW SO IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER. COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS WELL. THE FIRST SINGLE DIGIT LOWS OF THE
YEAR ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD END 
BY SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA. A 
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR 
LIGHT SNOW. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS ATTEMPT 
TO WARM TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING. 

MODELS THEN STRUGGLE ON WHEN TO BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE 
REGION. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING 
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND
WILL BE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC BY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD FOR MOST TAF SITES...BUT THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND. 

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BRING VIS DOWN TO IFR PERIODICALLY OVERNIGHT. ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXPECTING A TREND
TOWARD VFR WHILE REMAINDER OF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN
18Z AND 03Z FRIDAY. 

ERI WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AFTER 18Z AND
CONTINUE BEYOND TAF PERIOD INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. MODELS SHOWING GOOD SET UP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO
IMPACT ERI BY THE EVENING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL...MENTIONED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH IFR VIS AND NEAR IFR CEILINGS AT TOWARDS END OF THE
PD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY ERI. NON VFR CONTINUING
ALONG LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN VFR
ALL SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NON VFR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE CURRENT THINKING WITH STORM WARNING BUT AS STORM FORCE 
WINDS DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT THE HEADLINE WILL NEED TO 
BE DOWNGRADED TO A GALE WARNING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL THEN 
CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE 
OHIO VALLEY.  A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY BUT THE 
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THIS FEATURE SO PER THE HPC GUIDANCE 
HAVE LESSENED WINDS ON MONDAY THINKING SCA CONDITIONS MAY NOT OCCUR 
UNTIL LATER MON NIGHT OR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ012>014.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142-143-162-
     163.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ADAMS